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How You Test Your Betting System

Hey guys, I wrote a little starters guide about testing your betting system I thought may be helpful
I don't want to break any rules so, this is the post - https://valuebettingblog.com/testing-your-betting-system/ But I've pasted it all below so you don't have to leave reddit.
Hopefully its somewhat helpful!
If you don’t know how to test your betting system, you’re flying blind. I’ll breakdown why we test, the forms of testing and the methods you can use.
You could call every stage of betting a form of testing:
While you are gathering information to create the grounding of your system; you’re testing.
Once you have your method and are trialling and backtesting; you’re obviously testing.
Then, when you are using your system, successfully or unsuccessfully, you are also testing with every subsequent bet.
Knowing how to analyse your system is an absolute non-negotiable in creating and maintaining profitable betting systems.

Why We Test (Rigorously)

This seems kind of obvious. If you don’t test something, you don’t know if it works.
But, that is just the beginning. We test comprehensively so that we don’t confuse variance with value.
To best explain how variance can affect our perception, I did a simple calculation:
Bets: 100Odds: 2.00Stake: 1% (proportional staking)Yield: -4%
This system, that is clearly unprofitable long-term, will make a profit 30.82% of the time...
If you were in that 30.82% and you were happy with this measly 100 bet trial, you may as well have not tested at all.
You’d be flying straight into the arms of bankroll bankruptcy as that -4% yield chipped away at your betting account and sanity.
We must test and we must test properly.
Use this spreadsheet to run the same simulation with whatever numbers you want - Profit-Probability

Testing Methods

All three of the listed methods should be used in one way or another.
Notice the absence of popular methods: 'intuition' and 'gut feel'...

Real Test (With A Small Bankroll)

The most simple way to test - trialling your own system with a smaller bankroll. A real test.
I polled some long-term profitable sports bettors for a recent article. There were some surprising answers, but it was no surprise that many of them recommended trialling with a small bankroll before committing any significant money. Sometimes for years.
This doesn’t mean winning 15/20 of the intuitive head to head bets that you placed because you had a good feeling about them. This means using your well-defined system over a period of months, sometimes years, and diligently logging 1000+ bets to validate or invalidate your betting system.
This method is great, it’s simple, and it works. But, it takes a long time. Spending years only to find your system is unprofitable would be wholly demoralising.
Betting volume is key here, if you are able to find ten value bets a day that fit the criteria of your system, you can get valuable, consequential data of 1000 bets logged in just over three months. But if not, it can be a slog.
This is where the backtest method is valuable.

Backtest

Luckily, every sports result and thousands of in-depth stats are available for free to every single one of you. It’s a beautiful ever-updated resource called the Internet.
The secret to testing and improving a system is simply to spend time going through past results and trying to find trends in the statistics.
Here is an example (don't use it):
Start with something to test - Over the past 500 games, Team A wins what % of games when the weather is below 15 Celsius?
First, you'll log the last 500 relevant games, using fbref.com for Football, bbref.com for Basketball, or any other database of results. Then, put all the relevant weather conditions into the same spreadsheet, giving you a correlation; in this case, it'll be a %.
55% of the time Team A wins in sub-15-celsius conditions. They must just love that cold weather and have superior weatherproof gloves than the rest of the competition...
With a 55% probability of occurring all we need to breakeven is odds of $1.82. If we can find odds of $2.00 we have clearly found odds above the required.
There are plenty above 2.00? Cool, now we’re rich.
Let’s be clear, this is a terrible inconsequential metric to backtest - but, the theory is that simple.
Oftentimes you will need to be testing multiple metrics against each other for 1000+ bets and failing many times before you find a system that succeeds with enough bet volume to be worth your time.
The benefit of backtesting is that you can spend the time doing it, right now. If you are trialling a system in real-time, you are waiting to log results week by week and season by season. Backtesting allows you to commit and spend as much time as you can right now finding a successful system.

Closing Line Testing

Across the board, there is no one smarter than the market. No One. More specifically, the market when it closes.
Over the long-term, the closing line; the odds at which the market closes, is analogous to the true probability of an event (minus the bookmaker margin). This is called the CLV (Closing Line Value) and it gives us something to compare ourselves to.
This general accuracy of the closing line is a product of many things:
First, the bookmaker publishes odds which they believe to reflect the true probability of an event, using the huge amount of resources at their disposal.
Next, bettors from all over the world bet on those odds. Recreational punters and serious punters.
Recreational punters bet on either side of the event, usually without much method. This barely affects the odds unless the bookmaker has made an obvious error.
Then, we have serious bettors, using their own analysis to find fault and value in the bookmaker odds - bookmakers react to the incoming bets, using these actions of highly regarded profitable bettors to help adjust the odds to the mutually calculated 'true odds' of the event.
It is essentially a battle between bookmakers and serious bettors, fighting it out to work out what the true probability of an event is. With a sea of recreational punters inconsequentially dancing around them and throwing cash at the bookmaker. A dizzying image.
That range between where the odds began and where they closed is where the value is.
To be clear, it’s not impossible to win money purely betting the closing odds. But, it is extremely hard. You are not only contending with the bookmaker’s initial analysis, but you are also contending with other serious sports bettors, the added information gathered by the bookmaker since the first odds were published, and the bookmaker margin.
So, the key to measuring yourself and your ability against the closing line is simple:
  1. Record the odds at which you placed the bet
  2. Record the closing line odds
  3. Calculate the bookmaker margin
  4. Calculate your implied yield
  5. Repeat 100’s of time...
For example, your system identified a market in which you believed the odds should have been 1.90-2.00, but you found odds of 2.05, a clear value bet based on your system.
The market then closed at 1.96, after removing the bookmaker margin of 2% the true implied odds would be 2.00.
Then to calculate the true yield you achieved, simply do: 2.05/2.00 = 2.5%
You have beaten the true closing line by 2.5%
Joseph Buchdahl wrote a great piece on Closing Line Value, showing the efficacy of testing against closing lines - Using the closing line to test your skill in betting.
Closing Line Value, as a theory, isn't bulletproof. But, it's strong and it may be the most reliable measure we have to test our systems.

Other Things To Test

Even a profitable system can be a failing system, let me explain how:

Time/Yield Ratio

Your time has a $ value. This is where the trialling method comes in.
If you spend two hours a day analysing markets and placing bets, and your average daily profit is $30, you are judging one hour of your time to be worth $15 - is that what your time is worth?
You have to know the cost in time and effort that is required by your betting system. Trial the system, see how long it takes you to place bets, compare odds, calculate stakes, and then evaluate the true cost of doing business.

Volume

So often neglected when people describe their betting systems. Volume > Yield.
Obviously, it's more nuanced than that. But, I'll take a system with a 2-3% yield with multiple bets per day over a system with a 10% yield but that only provides one bet per week. Every time.
The lower the volume, the longer it takes to test, and the longer it takes to compound your bankroll. If it's taking you three years to log 500 bets, your edge could be lost before you even get to profit from it.

Life/Bet Balance

You've backtested your system, it works, it's got the volume, the yield, and takes very little ongoing maintenance. You're all set, right?
Not quite. I bet on ITF tennis, many of those markets are released while late at night over here in Melbourne. Luckily, the odds often hold and I'm also a bit of a night owl. It's not a problem for me.
But, if you have to stay up to use your system, you have to evaluate whether it's worth it. If you work 9-5 and have to keep your phone ready during the day, that could threaten your job. You might not want to be checking your phone while spending time with your family in the afternoons. All things that need to be considered.
We are slaves to bookmakers and when they make odds available. Sometimes, your system just won't fit your life (so give it to me).

Bookmaker Availability

We all know this one, bookies don't like your winning system. They also have the power to cripple it.
Most bookmakers will limit or ban you for winning regularly and consistently in large volumes. Your backtests don't account for that, your small bankroll trials don't account for that.
First, assess how many bookmakers your system will work with. Then, open accounts with as many bookmakers as possible. The key to not being limited is spreading your bets across multiple bookies. Here is an article detailing some other ways to sidestep bookmaker limits.
Ask other bettors what their experiences are. You won't have to go far to find out that Pinnacle doesn't limit and Paddy Power does, quickly. Here is a list of some 'no limit bookmakers'.
Do your research, testing a system for a year and then being limited within a week would be extremely frustrating.

Conclusion

Are you convinced? Testing diligently is imperative to building a profitable method.
All a bit too much? There always is the option to outsource your betting analysis to a tipster or service. For that, I'll direct you to this article - Find The Best Tipsters (A Sceptics Guide)
A rigid plan and framework for building your betting system would be:
  1. Backtest your initial hypothesis, over a month, year, and multi-year period. Analyse closing lines for the backtested data.
  2. Trial your system with a small bankroll and reach 1000 bets. Analyse all bets against the closing line.
  3. Compare your backtest with your trial. Did your backtest have any oversights?
  4. Analyse the human aspects of your system. Were the bets too time-consuming to place? Did it cut into your family time?
  5. Analyse the logistics. How available were bookmakers, have you been told they are quick to limit? Is there enough volume?
  6. Decide if it's worth it.
  7. Profit
Time-consuming? Yeah. Important? YES.
Good luck with your betting systems.
Coming Soon - 'Testing Your Betting System: Advanced Guide'. In this guide, we will delve into P-Value, Forward Testing, and Blind Testing. Subscribe to be notified.
Happy (Value) Betting
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Pick of the week: FC Midtjylland – Liverpool !

Pick of the week: FC Midtjylland – Liverpool !
Tipster: Realtu Stake: 1/10 Odds: 2.262 Start GMT: 09.12.2020 | 17:55 League: UEFA - Champions League Category: Football Prediction Bookmaker: VIP-IBC Betting Prediction: Liverpool to win

Champions League | FC Midtjylland – Liverpool

This week we are going to look at a match for the UEFA Champions League between FC Midtjylland and Liverpool. The championship is still in its early stages, but let’s look at the numbers and try to pick the best choice:
The home team here will be the FC Midtjylland, at the moment they have 1a single point in 5 games, 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, only 3 goals scored and 12 suffered. We are still in the early stages, but this team has not been doing well so far, despite their recent draw against Atalanta.
Our visitors are the 1st placed Liverpool. They have 12 points in 5 games, 4wins, 1 loss, 9 goals scored, and 2 suffered. Liverpool is doing quite well and it is leading the table with a 4-point advantage at the moment.
This time we will palace our support behind the visitors. The FC Midtjylland hasn’t shown anything so far that merits our support against a strong team like Liverpool. Plus, Liverpool has a stronger attack and a stronger defense than their rivals, and I believe that will take them to the victory here.
submitted by logical_chard2501 to BET_IBC [link] [comments]

What Are The Benefits of Online Football Betting Tips?

What Are The Benefits of Online Football Betting Tips?
An experienced bettor is eligible of using his/her skills in the world of speculative games in two different ways – either to gain suitable results or to help others receive lucrative reward points. The best football tipsters uk help others acquire victorious results with the use of their knowledge. An experienced and reliable tipster will help you acquire gainful reward points. The skills shared by an investment company like this will also turn you into a gifted individual in the world of speculative games.
These tipsters may charge you substantially for their shared knowledge. They may even ask you for a percentage of the assets won by you with the help of these tips. The idea of sharing a part of your reward points may make you feel vexed. Therefore, it is necessary to negotiate the mode of payment or the fee for consultation before acquiring the assistance of the best football tipsters.
If you like to participate in football betting, the useful knowledge shared by the expert tipsters may help you in two different ways.
https://preview.redd.it/to29t2ifzcy51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=197d94a373708378c2283ff17fdf23338955c072

Selecting the right level is the key to winning

The speculative games have been designed to allure the gamers towards different types of gaming genres. These games are extremely addictive in nature. Even professional players sometimes have trouble turning away from their favourite gaming events.
The reward points announced on the advanced levels of any gaming platform may seem extremely lucrative to the novice players. You may end up losing a substantial amount of your asset instead of gaining a single reward point. You may save yourself from drowning with the tips of the best football tipsters; though, it is advisable to stay out of the advanced gaming tiers if you are not in possession of necessary skills or knowledge.

Making discrete use of your bonus points

The reputable online betting platforms will offer you with lucrative bonus points at the time of your joining. These enticing bonus points are offered to enthusiastic players in order to prevent them from joining the competitive sites. An experienced investment company London works as an expert guide for novice players. It will keep you informed about the prudent usage of your bonus points.
If you are in love with football, you may want to use your love and knowledge for this game in the arenas of online betting platforms.
If you are a beginner, the online football betting tips available through the best online betting sites will be highly advantageous to you. The aforementioned points and examples show the importance of the knowledge of an expert tipster in the games of speculation.
submitted by veronicakellyuk to u/veronicakellyuk [link] [comments]

I followed eight professional tipsters of a popular betting site for one year and wrote about the results

Hey guys,
The title probably says it all
https://cognitivefootball.wordpress.com/2018/03/04/the-illusion-of-skill/
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Removed comments/submissions for /u/tronatula

Hi tronatula, you're not shadowbanned, but 12 of your most recent 200 comments/submissions were removed (either automatically or by human moderators).

Comments:

g1ve0y0 in Games on 17 Aug 20 (1pts):
Note that this game is available in Xbox Game Pass for PC.

Submissions:

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Is the new setting "'Hardware-Accelerated GPU Scheduling" in Windows 10 worth turning on?
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I know this sub is not for prebuilts but this PC is too good to be true.
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Already encountered 2 aimbot and wallhack cheaters after the first 2 deathmatch games on a new account. Why is Valve so bad at stopping cheating?
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The Great Escape ss3 ep 3 and 4 subtitles?
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Why are the premium tipsters on BetFame (legit site) so good
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[Scientific Study] Reward and motivational impairments in ADHD might be due to a misbalance between activation of dopamine D1 and D2 receptor pathways that govern action control.
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People with ADHD often feel lack of motivation. Yet, studies indicate that d-AMP, MPH may reduce Dopamine D2 receptor availability, which decreases our already low motivation in long-term.
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Concerta is the only ADHD drug in Vietnam, it does not work for me. How to obtain US ADHD treatment for a foreigner (or any other countries that have amphetamine stimulants)?
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Help us expose and stand up to social media bias and censorship!
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Make the Best of the Betting World with BET-IBC

Hello everyone, we are BET-IBC, the best betting software in the market, with over 10 years of experience offering our clients the best betting options with top-rated bookmakers worldwide.
We also offer the best betting software in the market, VIP-IBC, where you will find the highest limits and odds in the market, have access to offers of over 10 top-rated bookmakers, and be able to compare the odds to always chose the best, all that with a single account!
And that's not all! On our website, you can also find the best free tips from our partner tipsters, various tools to help your betting life, such as an Asian Handicap and OveUnder calculator, a very handy Odds Converter to help you calculate different betting-formats and much more!
We are always more than glad to help you make the most of your betting life, be it just your favorite hobby or your profession.
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Horse Racing Tips - How To Lay Favourites And Make A Profit Every Single Day

For all of you that are reading this that do not know what "Laying" is, it is simply YOU predicting 1 horse in any race that will NOT win that race. In effect YOU become a bookmaker and take bets from people who think that the horse WILL win.
I do not know if you have your own system or you use horse racing tips from a tipster, but this a very simple horse racing system anybody can use.
It is not complicated at all and it is simply pressing 1 button on Betfair exactly the same as you would if placing a win single bet {Pink lay button instead of the blue win button}
Some people will tell you that laying horses is a sure fire way to end up in the "poor house" and they would be dead right if you don't do it properly and this goes for ANY bet you have, not just laying.
Say for example we have a 12 runner horse race and you wanted to bet 1 of these to win that race, you will then have ALL the other 11 horses running AGAINST you and are trying to stop your 1 selection from winning.
Now on the other hand we have a 12 runner horse race and we pick 1 horse to LOSE {lay} we now have ALL the other 11 horses running FOR US and if any of those 11 horses win that race WE WIN!!
Some tipster give these kind of horse racing tips and I can assure that if done properly it can make you quite a lot of money!
So the odds are WITH you and not AGAINST you when laying.
The only problem with laying horses to lose is with YOU and the way you select them. You would imagine that "Laying" the outsider in all races would certainly stand you in good stead as the majority of them lose and you would win the majority of the time BUT unfortunately if you take that course you WILL come unstuck at some point and you WOULD wipe out any previous profits plus more from your original betting banks, as they do win now and again.
Lets just imagine that the outsider in every race was 33/1 and you wanted just £10 profit per race, to win that £10 you would have a liability of £330, meaning that if that horse were to win YOU would LOSE £330, just not worth the risk!! You would only need 1 per week to wipe you out.
==The "Favourite"==
Some of you probably think that I am a bit mad at this point, why would I lay the best horse in every race... what kind of horse racing tips is this??
Well, simply put the BEST horse in any race may NOT really be the best horse! The favourite in ANY race is only the favourite because WE make it the favourite by placing lots of money on it, it's as simple as that.
So if 1,000 people who DON'T know what they are doing place £1000 each on the same horse then it could become the favourite even though its last run was down on Blackpool pleasure beach!
What we are going to do is to find "false" favourites, favourites that because of one reason or another shouldn't really be favourite.
Statistics show that favourite win their races just 30% of the time, some races are GOOD for favourite and some races are BAD for favourites.
Would you bet a 6/4 favourite in an 18 runner handicap race? I certainly would not BUT I would lay it, with the other 17 runners ALL running for me.... these is common sense horse racing tips!
Your liabilities are also good with you only risking £15 if the odds were 6/4 {2.5 on Betfair} to win £10, I'm sure you would agree that this is a lot better than the example above where you risk a LOT more for the same reward.
You may now see why "Laying" can be quite safe and very profitable.
==The Selections==
This part really is very simple and it will not take you long to find quite a few "False Favourites" Just follow the rules over the page.
1: Armed with either your daily newspaper or at the racing post website {Or Both} simply select the races with the most number of runners in them.
2: Ideally, you should look for handicap races which have 16 runners or more.
3: If you can find any, Apprentice races and women jockey races are very good for laying the favourite.
4: Once you have these marked off , simply go through them and pick all the "Handicap" races. These are the races that are best to concentrate on.
5: Pick out any handicap races that have odds for the favourite quoted as no more than 7/4.
6: The above horses would be DEFINATE bets, don't worry if there aren't any on certain days, simply go to any race that has 16 runners or more.
7: Some days you may find that there are no 16 runner or above races, if this happens simply look for 14 runners etc.
8: If the odds are 2.8 and lower, then these are DEFINATE bets.
9: Do NOT lay selections that are below 1.9 on betfair, although a fair few of these lose, a fair few of them win as well and that we DON'T want.
When sticking to the above you will have great success when laying horses, when also using a sensible staking plan BUT if you add the following few rules to the above then you will achieve even more success.
So here is my personal horse racing tips:
1: After making your selections, either at the racing post website or any daily newspaper, just check to see if your horse is a "Course & Distance" winner {Shown as CD NEXT TO THE HORSE}. If it is then DON'T lay it.
2: Is your selection carrying any more or less weight than it did in its last race? If it is carrying more weight then LAY it, if it is carrying less weight then do NOT lay it.
4: Is your selection stepping up or stepping down in trip? if so then you SHOULD consider laying it.
5: Has your selection either a lady or apprentice jockey riding it? If so then LAY it because they DO make errors of judgement.
Apart from the above to make this work you will also need a sensible staking plan, one that will keep your money relatively safe and make your whole betting experience an enjoyable one.
I use something quite simple and recommend you do it this way as well but you are obviously at liberty to do whatever you like.
I will take a £1,000 betting bank as an example:
Divide your betting bank by 200, so in this example it is £5. So a profit target on day 1 of £5 per race. I know exactly what you are thinking at this point..."Not quite as much as I was hoping for!!!"
Well, admittedly its not a lot but if you are aiming for say 8 such races per day, then £40 is not to be sniffed at, and remember this is only day 1, from day 2 your profit target may well be £6 per race. Trust me on this one, it doesn't take too long to get your betting banks built up enough so that you are aiming for £25, £50 or even £100 per race.
To put it all into perspective let us say that you achieve an easy 5 winning bets per day, that's an overall percentage profit of 2.5% DAILY or nearly 18% total weekly profit added to your betting banks or to give it a monetary value NEARLY £1000 profit in the first 4 weeks.
Take it to week 8 and your betting bank has now grown to £3800 and from there on in you will be aiming for a race profit of £20, or £100 per day @ 5 winning races per day.
As long as you look at any of your gambling activities as a long term BUSINESS venture, then you will achieve much more than if you look at it as a quick source of income to help out with any financial difficulties that you may have.
==Golden Rules ( The Real Horse Racing Tips! )==
1: After making your selections, either at the racing post website or any daily newspaper, just check to see if your horse is a "Course & Distance" winner {Shown as CD NEXT TO THE HORSE}. If it is then DON'T lay it.
2: Is your selection carrying any more or less weight than it did in its last race? If it is carrying more weight then LAY it, if it is carrying less weight then do NOT lay it.
4: Is your selection stepping up or stepping down in trip? if so then you SHOULD consider laying it.
5: Has your selection either a lady or apprentice jockey riding it? If so then LAY it because they DO make errors of judgement.
Apart from the above to make this work you will also need a sensible staking plan, one that will keep your money relatively safe and make your whole betting experience an enjoyable one.
I use something quite simple and recommend you do it this way as well but you are obviously at liberty to do whatever you like.
submitted by MediumEmployer to Paulickinfo [link] [comments]

Tipster Analysis 06.04.2015

Fixed stakes for every tipster. Singles only.
Tipster Bets Tracked Bets Won Hit Rate Yield
@FootySuperTips 8 5 62,5% -3,1%
@MrFootyTips 5 4 80% 17%
LSSN 7 5 71,4% 20,7%
@InplayMan 6 2 33,3% -56,7%
@FHGTIPS 23 12 52,2% -27,5%
@DDimitrov76 5 1 20% -70%
The Manchester City game screwed lots of them over.
Any other suggestions which tipsters I should track?
Edit: Made a little mistake, the last column isn't RoI but Yield: Net Profit/Money staked
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24/09/19 Tuesday - Matchday Picks

INNOCENT POSSUM'S PICKS:

I really shouldn't have to say this, but I will.
No one owes you anything. If it's no use to you as it comes, just ignore it. Its your money and literally nobody is forcing you to spend it on their picks. If you back someone's picks and they lose, You lost your own money, not the tipster. Again, this sub is FREE info, you aren't owed anything.

MY PICKS:

NO. FIXTURE: COMPETITION: WIN: WIN&BTTS:
1. Aldershot Vs. YEOVIL National League @2.40 @5.50
2. Chorley Vs. BARROW National League @2.40 @5.00
3. Ebbsfleet Vs. BARNET National League @2.40 @4.75
4. HALIFAX Vs. Harrogate National League @2.37 @4.75
5. Maidenhead Vs. DOVER National League @2.25 @4.50
TOTAL: 5-Fold 1-5 @73.87 @2,792.10
.

MY REASONING:

ALDERSHOT VS. YEOVIL:
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CHORLEY VS. BARROW:
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EBBSFLEET VS. BARNET:
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HALIFAX VS. HARROGATE:
.
.
MAIDENHEAD VS. DOVER:
.
.

MY BETS:

.
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You do not have to back my picks the same way I do, back singles if you like, I just find accumulators more fun!

BEST OF LUCK IF YOU FOLLOW!
FEEL FREE TO JOIN MY SUBREDDIT: /InnocentPossumsPicks
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What are the Benefits of Buying Verified Soccer Tips?

It very well may be troublesome or practically incomprehensible for you to win reliably at soccer wagering. This is the reason it is essential to depend on confirmed soccer tips to guarantee that you produce benefits routinely and get the best returns for the cash you wager in. These tips are made by specialists who have long stretches of involvement with football wagering.
So how would you profit by crafted by these tipsters and the tips they give.
How Soccer Tipsters Work?
Soccer tipsters are always attempting to examine every one of the information that is important for making soccerway expectations for up and coming matches. They for the most part have practical experience in explicit group and competitions and have involvement with that zone. You can recognize the best tipsters dependent on their prosperity rates. Tipping locales for the most part list the presentation details of every single high-performing specialists on their site. A basic examination of these details can make it simple for you to pick the correct master.
●Experienced tipsters discover all the data from dependable and believed soccer locales on the web
●They can likewise approach football insiders for key data
●They look at and associate all the data between the 2 sides to think of precise tips
●These tips are then confirmed by the tipping site's locale of specialists to guarantee that you are getting checked soccer tips
Favorable circumstances
You can buy these tips and anticipate making benefits from your wagers. Investigate the various manners by which you profit by crafted by such specialists:
I. Predictable Winnings and Profits
At the point when you purchase tips and predictz soccer forecasts from tipsters, you get the assurance of winning. This implies winning even the most troublesome wagering markets including the aggregators. You can anticipate making benefits toward the finish of consistently and each season.
ii. Pick Your Bets
Another bit of leeway of depending on the specialists is that you get constantly to choose wagers of your decision. Rather than getting into inside and out research, you should simply locate the best wagers and bet on them. Soccer wagering exploration can take heaps of time. It will mean taking a break from your work and different tasks. Since so much information is required to be found and dissected, it can likewise be a major exertion on your part. Rather, it is ideal to buy tips from the specialists and spare yourself time and exertion.
iii. Feel Better and Enjoy the Sport
At the point when you wager and win reliably, it will likewise help in boosting your confidence. You can appreciate soccer at its best without doing all the difficult work. Doing all the examination for causing coming to up with the predictz soccer expectations can chip away the rush and sheen about watching the game itself. Then again, you can concentrate on finding the best wagers and winning reliably. This adds to your general understanding.
Along these lines, there are numerous advantages of purchasing tips from checked soccer tipsters. It adds to your experience and bankroll and furthermore gives you bits of knowledge into how to think like a specialist.
submitted by marksdalins to u/marksdalins [link] [comments]

Betadvisor offer the best football tipsters

Betadvisor offer the best football tipsters
Best football tipsters
All the time long Gamble related people are loves to pay for betting in football. Reason is this game have easy rules and there all the players who play in international level are pretty known to all. Betadvisor keep focus on that sector. From the early time of this company have established they are searching for some Best football tipsters for their user. They always wanted to make sure their quality is better than other people. Most of the people are become confused at the early time. Maybe you are one of those. In this article we are going to write down all the things who Betadvisor will provide best tipsters for the football game and make you more profitable. Let’s jump to it and make clear all the things about Betadvisor.
Expense to hire a tipsters on Betadvisor
There are both of regular and Pro tipsters in Betadvisor. You have both of daily basis and monthly offer to get their hire for your job. And the expense of daily basis hire is start from 5 euro which is not too much. There are so many reason people hire tipsters for daily basis need. Think if you have a need for a single game where you are not too familiar then you can go for daily basis deal. This is the suggested for the new gambler. On other hand there are monthly basis deal too. If you think you need to go for a long betting for a tournament it will be pretty saving thing. There will have so many better who will work for you’re by only 35 euro.
Availability of free tipsters
Both of free tips and free tipsters are available in the Betadvisor. For those people who are new in the sector or who want to judge a tipsters then they may go for free deal. This sounds like free. But in the long run they will give the perfect advice to you to prove them as right. But this is true that many of those people want to surety to you that you will make more paid deal with them.
Betadvisor have football researcher
You will find there are a lot of researcher in the Betadvisor who have pass a lot of year behind football. Even they do their research on a very specific sector. I mean none of those people are going to pay attention to club football and international football at a time. For different type of game they have different type of researcher. This bets thing what Betadvisor offer you.
After all the thing you must consider the part of Betadvisor. If you pay them less and forcer to give you the better suggestion, then it maybe will not a good way to behave. Hope you will pay the proper respect to the Best football tipsters as they will do for you. Otherwise they will lost respect for you and never feel to interest to work with you. On other hand they will work more for your favor if you give them more company. No matter how much you lost money before on your career, their wise and research instruction will help you to get back all the money again. Then again you must keep concentration what they are talking about. Good luck for your betting career.
submitted by abraham3579 to u/abraham3579 [link] [comments]

HOW TO SELECT A TIPSTER

How to choose service which you can trust and which can make you money ? Read this before you start buying , subscribing or whatever
It depends how much you bet , you are small bettor or big ? Let me explaine .
📷
If you are small bettor for example you bet 10 euro per bet.
Limitation will not be a problem for long time, so you can choose non asian tipster who use bet365, fonbet , bwin . But here is the catch most of country have additionall taxes on winning. They are high 5-10% . So if some tipster make you 100 dollars in real you will win only 90 dollars coz you must pay taxes. And then take in mind that overal tield which you will have will be smaller by 10%. That not mean if tipster have 30% yield you will have 20 % yield. you will have 10% less which is in the end 27% yield/profit. So this is acceptable but you must take this in mind in your calculations.
But you canot make lots of money with non asian bookies, and i will explaine you why with most important thing MONEY EXAMPLE
Best tipster by stats here who use non asian bookies have 20% yield after 1000 picks.
So if you play 1000 picks x 10 euro thats is possible profit of 10.000 eu ( if you win them all )
But like we can see u can win IN BEST CASE yield 20% on long run so in real you can win 200 BETS x 10 euro = 2.000 euro.
Thats not so bad if you live in third world but , here is important thing !!
Those 2.000 euro no tipster will provide you in one month , simply almost nobody plays 1.000 tips per month . Those 2.000 euro best yield tipsters who plays on non asians bookies can provide you in 5-6 months ( if they play average 10 bets per day ) or in a year if they play 5 bets per day )
So if they play 10 bets per day you can get only 2000 eu divided by 6 months = 330 euro per month in best case or 165 euro per month if they play normal 5 bets per day . If they play slow 1-2 bets per day then my friend you can expect to get only 70-80 euro per month if they play with good 20% yield .
If we see that average price for tipster who use non asian is 50 euro per month even if he have 20% yield that month u can get only 25 euro per month.
And if u pay taxes of 10% then u will get really bad profit, which you can get it by your self ( in this scenario he can win you +20 euro per month if he play followable slow 1-2 picks per day ) . In my eyes is better to play on Barca win next game 1.20 with 100 euro and have that profit of 20 euros.
So to brings you profit of 330 eu per month ( best case scenario ) he must play at least 10 bets per day, so ask your self can i play all 10 bets everyday do i have time for that ? Das it worth to me to spend all day long waiting for picks for just 330 eu per month in best case scenario ???
But i am just saying the facts , you must decide what is best for you.
IMPORTANT to be fair : U can play more than 10 eu per bet only if you have 10 bookies account ( non asian ) in long run . But sooner or later you will be limited there to 1-2 euros. Try it. Also argument is you can play in local bookie shops. But imagine your self you get a info 30 minutes before game start and you must run to 10 different shops to play 10 x 10 euros . This is imposible except you are not superman who can fly or mafia boss who can call the bookies employee , who knows everybody and in 5 minutes he can play all those bets. Ordinary punter canot do that. Also this is expence of transportation, parking which will take your profit down. Also this is gouvernment taxes of 10 % per win . So in money what that means ? 20% yield when u spend time and money to bet in 10 shops and u must pay 10% taxes in bookmaker shop will decrease your profit. So your profit is very slim in real life.
Also tipsters who use non asian bookies and play live bets are bad. You will never get same odds , same oportunity to make money like on paper. In live betting you canot have time to play on 10 bookies ( non assians ) so u can bet more than 10 euro if u play online. That is why people should reconsider before they follow, play or buy non asian bookie tipster tips WHEN HE PLAYS LIVE BETS.
__________________________________________________________________
Now i want to explaine you about tipsters who use asian bookmakers ( good and bad things )
You can make big money with them but also you can loose big money with them. For example you can bet those bets with average 1000 eu per bet. Which is good thing if you are rich.
But what is dangerous ?
About price of service versus how much you can win with them …
Top Assian tipsters have 10% yield after 1.000 picks . Lets translate that in money.
That means that they win 100 picks more then they loose in 1000 picks ( if average odds is 2.00 )
So 100 picks x 1000 euro = 100.000 euro . So If they bet 100 picks per month average 3 per day you can expect to have 1000 picks in one year . So 100 picks per month with 10% win is 10 winning bets . 10 winning bets x 1000 euro = 10.000 euro.
Price for Assian tipsters is on average 100 euro. So this is a bargain. For 100 euro u can get a guy who can make you per month 10.000 euro.
If u are small Asian bettor who play 100 euro per bet , in this case in the end of the month you will have 1.000 euro profit and you pay for the service only 100 euro.
Let we now compare non asian tipsters with yield 20% vs asian tipsters with yield 10%
Like i explained you before non asian gets in best case for you ( 10 euro per bet ) in the end of the month 330 euro but you must play more than 10 bets per day to achieve that ( maybe you are in work , maybe you miss the bet, maybe you drive kids at school ) so 10 bets per day to play them always is not followable WHICH IS BAD THING for your profit. But ok 330 euro in best case scenario.
On the other hand u have 3 tips per day Asian and in WORST CASE 1.000 EURO PROFIT and in best case 10.000 euro profit per month with followable 3 picks per day.
So this is no brainer best case 330 euro is way lower then 1.000 euro in worst case scenario playing with asian and in 10.000 euro scenario is a midget. So if we translate this in money 20 % yield non assian is 3 times worst then 10% yield Assian ( on same ammount of picks ) Why simply you will get 3 times more money with Assian bookies, in same time , same number of picks. So in fact when you see 10% yield multiply that with x3 if u play 100 eu per bet on Assian and u can get proper yield for comparison . If you play 1.000 eu per bet then 10% yield is worth multiply that x 30 time ( more profit ) so this is like u have 300% yield playing Non asians ( that stronger in terms of final product money is playing on Asian bookies compared on non asian bookies )
Profesional investors knows this , it is time blogabet to inform real truth to the gamblers . I doubt they will publish this but i will try it.
-Just to add not every sport on Asian have high limit of >1.000 euro but lowest limit is 100 euro per bet ( scenario when you can win 1.000 eu per month )
___________________________________________________
So what to do ???
Non asians can bring you only 330 eu per month if you are lucky ( but you can loose not big money if something go wrong which is good )
Asians can bring you big money ( but you can be bancroupt fast high risk if tipster start loosing like crazy )
That is up to you to decide.
______________________________________________________________
You have medium option which nobody use.Smart combo 2-3 tips in combo tipsters with average odds over 3.00.
Combos have higher yield but let presume best after 1000 picks is 15% .
From 100 picks per month ( 3 picks per day combos ) if tipster win only 40% of the bets on odds higher then 3 with 100 euro per bet thats big and safe.
40 bets X 3 odds = 300 euro x 40 times = 12000 euro in just 100 bets. Total investment is 10000 euro on 100 bets and in the end you win 2.000 euro.
People avoid combos because of the volume number of tips posted , but thats not smart. Now i will explaine you why.
Main argument is , you think i dont have 10.000 euro to start .
But in fact you dont need 10.000 eu to start. He will not post all 100 picks in one day so for example he will post 10 picks per day , so you will need only 1.000 euro to play all his combos. ( remember playing high stake on assian u will need 1.000 eu just to bet one bet and here for 1.000 euro you will have 10 bets . 10 chances to win not just one )
Later you will play with money which you win before. So for me this is safer way to bet then high role Asian ( 1.000 eu ) per bet , because i think it is more easy to win 4 from 10 bets on odds 3.00 then 1 bet on odds 2.00 ( high stake asian )
That is called spreading the risk with more risk which in real is not risk at all.
Explanation for this : Go now and write in paper random two combos odds over 3.00 ( 1.70 odds x 1.60 odds ) I bet most stupid punter will get 2 from 10 . . Two from 10 what this means in money ??? 100 eu per bet u invest /1000 eu u win only 2. ( 2 x 300 eu = 600 eu ) So this is half loose . Now tell me which Assian gives you -0.25 on odds 2.15 and u will have 10 chances to cover ?
Do you get my point now ?
With high stake you have only one chance , win or loose thats it. With combos u have more cover.
What will happend if u are moderate tipster and u win 3 from 10 , u will probabbly get a push ( money back or small loose ) I bet 50% people here can win 3 from 10 on odds 3.00 ( combos )
Ourgoal is to have 4 from 10 wins in long run . Translate in money ( 1000 investment ) 4 x 300 = 1200 eu clear win of 200 euro / on 100 bets win is 2000 on 10.000 is 20.000 eu. If we compare that vs high roller 1000 eu per bet assain which profit is 10 000 eu per month or 100.000 per year or if u are small asian player ( 100 eu per bet ) then which profit is 1 000 eu per month or 10.000 per year.
If we choose to compare same investment bank 10.000 for 1000 picks ( 100 eu per bet ) combos wins if 4 from 10 = 20.000 per 1000 picks and moderate asian wins only 10.000 eu per year . For me it combo rulles not only they can win you more for same investment , cover spread of the bets is safer ( more chances to win )
Lets compare Combos vs non asian singles then. ( remember most of the combos u can play always on Asian bookies non limits but even Non asians dont limit combos you can play all combos with 100 euro or more ) . So 20.000 per year with combos vs 2.000 eu per year playing on non asian. Remember 2.000 per year is best you can do with non asians ( only if you have 10 accounts on different bookies so u can play more money u can win more , or u can bet on local shop )
And now lets talk if you get lucky and win 5/10 ( 1000 investment ) 5 x 300 = 1500 eu clear win of 500 euro / on 100 bets win is 5000 on 10000 is 50.000 eu
And u have more chances to win if u are lucky enough with 6/10 ( 1.000 bank ) 6 x 300 = 1800 eu = 800 eu profit.
In high stake assian on odds 2.00 u will get clear win 1000 eu no cover nothing on one bet, i prefer to play 10 bets with cover . Yes it is true it is harder to win big 6/10 and win the same like with Asian high rollers but is also smaller chances to loose cos i have cover on my bets.
So you decide about pro and cons of combo betting vs high roller asian single betting.
I can explaine in some other article about combo betting more next time.
_____________________________________________________
Now to explaine you about tricky yield !!!
FOr example u have now 100 units profit , and in next 100 bets u dont win nothing and not loose nothing 50% – 50% on all bets on odds 2.00 . What will happend ? Overal profit will be the same and yield will go down by 30% or more. And in first glance you wull think this tipster is bad . How this tipster is more bad now if you didnt loose any money ?? That yield will tell you he is not so good anymore and you will not follow him anymore. Which is wrong.
Yield without the profit is nothing. Profit without yield is still something moeny in your pocket remember that.
submitted by thanhthuy02 to u/thanhthuy02 [link] [comments]

Thanks Guys, it's been a lot of fun.

That's me out for another few years until the next time I need to remind myself how shit I am at betting.
I think I first started with a £50 float about 25 years ago, and it lasted about a month. I've probably tried every 5 years or so since then, and it's the same every time.
It was Twitter that made me try again, but having followed a few on there, they don't seem to be any better than some here, in fact I think there are some really shit tipsters there who only follow the crowd.
What's been different this time?
Well, the wealth of information now is incredible, and the amount of markets the bookies offer is mindblowing, but overall, we're betting on a unpredictable event where we'll all be tripped up eventually, if not daily.
One thread that stood out for me was "How much do you spend a week on betting".
Not one. single. person. said that they make a profit each week, and many were free to admit that they spend £X a week, which really surprised me.
Anyway, thanks for the fun, and remember that this will cost you money.
Good luck to you all. :D
submitted by Muck777 to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]

Picking Games and Profitability!

Hi all,
I’m a tipster and punter myself and have been for a couple of years now, however I’ve come to the realisation that for me, congested fixture lists aren’t profitable. For example, Saturdays. There are so many fixtures to choose from across all European leagues and even RoW and Americas, I don’t know where to start.
Sunday’s are more straightforward and when there’s a single game on midweek I find it easier to concentrate on that and research fully.
When I research games I analyse tactics, formations, goals scored/conceded, home and away records, injuries and suspensions, manager records, form etc. You name it and I’ll know it ahead of a game I’m betting on.
Does anyone have any advice for narrowing down selected games when there’s thousands to choose from?
Thanks. Open to everyone’s suggestions ahead of this weekends action and moving forward!
submitted by matthewdooleyuk to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/7/16 (Tuesday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Added breakdown by month. Surprisingly, I have just realised that if you blindly tail every POTD that have at least 1 tailer, you would be better off than just tailing the first 3. LOL!
Please make sure you only reply "tailed", etc before game start, NOT after game is finished! Voting after the fact is useless. You can reply thanks, $$$, awesome, etc after game is completed to show your support.
POTD1LWLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WWLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WWLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/16/16 (Thursday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Boooom! 2 MOTD hits, but I am not on it :( Congrats to tonz86 and whorunit, bring us more!
POTD1WWLWLWWLLLWLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2LLWWLLWLLWWLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WLWWLWWLLWWLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/2/16 (Thursday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Please result your tip if possible, by bolding W or L or P. This will help me a lot. :) Appreciated!
POTD1LWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2LWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/3/16 (Friday)

Result out later for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Boooooom! All 3 POTDs Won! My pick finally got into POTD, with 3 votes ;)
Stay hot, JLR- and mcmurdles
POTD1WLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/9/16 (Thursday)

Result out now for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: Another bad day yesterday....
Please make sure you only reply "tailed", etc before game start, NOT after game is finished! Voting after the fact is useless. You can reply thanks, $$$, awesome, etc after game is completed to show your support.
POTD1LLLWLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2LLWWLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3LLWWLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/6/16 (Monday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: LOL, after all L on Saturday, we are back to W mode yesterday! Yeeha!
Please make sure you only reply "tailed", etc before game start, NOT after game is finished! Voting after the fact is useless. You can reply thanks, $$$, awesome, etc after game is completed to show your support.
POTD1WLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 6/15/16 (Wednesday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
Note Worthy: please ignore the question from Statnerd It is not genuine question. If this happens for another few days I will get mod to ban him (consider this a warning).
POTD1LWLWWLLLWLWWLWLWWLPWWWWPLWWLPLWWW
POTD2WWLLWLLWWLWWLWLLLWLPWWLLWWLLWWWWL
POTD3WWLWWLLWWLWWWLLPWLLLLWLLLWWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Pick of the Day - 5/20/16 (Friday)

Result out NOW for yesterday POTD
SPECIAL REQUEST: Please include Sport type, event, starting time and time zone, odds
E.g. NRL Souths -5.5 7.50pm AEST 1.90 or MLB White Sox 11AM PST -110
Booooooooooooooooooooooom! 3W! Good work, guys! 75% strike rate with ~7u return, holy, we are good!
POTD1WWLPLWWW
POTD2WLLWWWWL
POTD3WWWWW
spreadsheet
Please remember to reply you have tailed or like the pick instead of upvote
RULES
submitted by sbpotdbot to sportsbook [link] [comments]

single bet tipster video

horse racing tipster harvey christian Cooper ew double bet ... les tipsters rentables que je conseil 3 french pronos ... BetAdvisor - YouTube Effective Strategy ... How To Win 100,000 $ in 4 Months ... How to ALWAYS win with Football Betting ! Unique FREE ...

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single bet tipster top

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horse racing tipster harvey christian Cooper ew double bet ...

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single bet tipster

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