Gamblers Fallacy - Definition & Examples LF - hot.onlinerealmoneytopgames.xyz

I administrate a small gacha community myself and feel like these are information that need to be shared. I'm not telling you that you shouldn't or can't spend money on Genshin Impact, but the least you can do is being aware of these things.
Whether you are already caught in the trap or not, simply knowing about these tricks, traps and fallacies will help you. Games use them to lure you in, keep you engaged and tempt you to spend money. I'll try to keep these points as short and condensed as I can.

0. Am I genuinely having fun?

Since this one is not really a trap and thus something of an outlier I marked it as 0., but it's a great question to keep in mind: "Do I still have genuinely fun playing this game, or does it feel like a chore? Is this worth my limited time?" You should regularly ask yourself that question.

1. The monthly pass (Blessing of the Welkin Moon) has a great price-performance ratio and is cheap so it can't hurt... can it?

The monthly passes in games are more dangerous than you think:

You get part of your purchase only on a daily basis to make you log in every day to not waste the gems you bought. This is to condition you to make the game your daily routine.
Using a cheap thing you can buy makes you set up a payment option and makes you accustomed with the process of buying. This reduces the resistance in case you have the urge for an impulse purchase.
Just because the price-performance ratio is better than the other available options doesn't make $4.99/5,50€ automatically worth it. You're still spending money on virtual things.

2. It's free to play and I enjoy(ed) it, so spending some money can't hurt.

While technically not wrong, be aware of the consequences this can have. Similar to the points above it might also be a trigger to incentivize for further purchases. Especially considering the next point:

3. Guilt-tripping the player into playing after they spent money

The game doesn't even have to do much for this since it usually happens by itself. Once you paid money you feel like you now have to play, even when you're not even really having fun.

4. The daily routine of work and chores

Just like with the monthly pass, by rewarding daily engagement with the game (daily quests/battle pass/rotating dungeons) you get conditioned to make the game part of your daily schedule/life. Once logging in and playing becomes a habit it can be difficult to stop, even if you don't really enjoy it and are literally just doing in-game work/chores.

5. The first time is free - veiling the distribution of currencies/gems

Also known as the honeymoon phase. You get a lot of free stuff in the beginning, tempting you to roll and get a taste of what rolling feels like - especially if you're lucky and get a rare characteitem. By slowly decreasing the distribution of these currencies you feel tempted to spend money to get more of that initial high you had. This hits especially bad when new content is shown/announced while you are out of gems.

6. Overwhelming the player with a lot of different currencies/gems

Genesis Crystals, Primogems, Intertwined Fate, Acquaint Fate, Starglitter, Stardust, there are so many (more or less) premium currencies that it's almost confusing - and not by accident.

Multiple currencies are used to make the player lose track of the different values. Buying something should make the player also think they got "a lot of different things" when it's just real money in different forms.
By sneaking in multiple currencies, the value of money is lost along the way. Example: Real money -> Primogems -> Intertwined Fate - This blurs the link between money and Intertwined Fate.

7. The carrot and the stick - New content and changing the meta

"Now that I have the best/meta character I will never need to spend money again." is sadly a trap a lot of people fall for, but what is currently considered "the best" will definitely change.
This is an investment into something that will not last, and even worse is that since you already spent a lot of money in the past you feel pressured to get the new "best" thing to not lose your place on top of the player-base.

8. "It's okay, I only spent $___, some other people spent waaay more."

If you're telling yourself something like this then you already walked further into the gacha trap than you might think. Denial in the form of rationalization is a crucial and dangerous sign for gambling addiction.

9. Gambler's Fallacy and Sunk Cost Fallacy - A dangerous combination

Well known classics, but I still felt like including them.
Gambler's Fallacy: "Gambler's fallacy refers to the erroneous thinking that a certain event is more or less likely, given a previous series of events."
Sunk Cost Fallacy: "Individuals commit the sunk cost fallacy when they continue a behavior or endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money or effort)."
While already dangerous on their own, in combination these two reach a whole different level. Even with the pity system, just because you were unlucky a lot doesn't mean that you are guaranteed to become more lucky in the future. This in combination with spending a lot of money without getting what you want can tempt you to spend even more.
"I already spent $200 and didn't get what I want. If I stop now those $200 will be wasted!"
This is a highly dangerous train of thought!

10. The Sunk Cost Fallacy strikes again

You don't have to spend actual money to fall for this fallacy. If the only thing that keeps you playing is the amount of time you already spent, the items you own and the characters you unlocked, then maybe you should reevaluate your decision. "If it's not fun, why bother?"

There are a lot more techniques that are used to trick people, from flashy pull animations to making you aware and jealous of other people's characters/pulls (Why do you think phone players are incentivized to take a screenshot of their pulls and share it?), but I wanted to keep it to the most common/obvious ones.
Edit: If you're still curious and want to know even more tricks and traps, Dokuganryu linked a great and informative video. Definitely worth a watch if you have the time.

I genuinely hope everybody is enjoying Genshin Impact, but keep in mind how this company makes their money.

Playing Golden Sun: The Lost Age - Part 6

Too busy celebrating Caillou's cancellation to play (nah, just kidding, studies are the culprit) but I can squeeze some time out now to continue the game a bit! Just finished the Gabomba Statue dungeon, so I'll take a look around Kibombo and see if anything's changed before revisiting places where I can use Piers' Frost (for now, I remember the Madra Catacombs and the Kibombo Mountains).
-Seems like everything's peaceful again around here, but to be honest I'm not optimistic at all about Akafubu's leadership being anything but pathetic. Who knows, maybe if I keep coming back to Kibombo I'll be able to see character growth. Is there a teleporting Psynergy in this game?
-Speaking of Akafubu, his dad's already singing his praises, but Akafubu's only beating himself up for leaving the room so quickly - not quite sure if he's doing it out of greed or something else, tbh.
-All the warriors were farm boys? Sounds pretty horrible for the town's economy and sustainability, but what do I know? It's literally like the military draft, I guess. Also, the weapon and armor shopkeepers talk about deadly poison and 'maaaaagic' being infused in the warriors' spears, but all the war paint in the world isn't gonna help you against a fireball, bud.
-Speaking of weapons and armor... Jenna (ironically) nabs the Frost Wand for herself, and that's it for weapons. As for Armor, Piers gets an Iron Helm and some Gauntlets. After some item shuffling (and seriously, what are these Game Tickets even used for?) I clear up enough inventory space so that Jenna can get some Gauntlets too. Item lady's got some daaark thoughts.
-...I should've guessed that monsters were eaten in this world, tbh. Thinking about it, how do people even separate normal animals from monsters here? What's the difference between, say, a wolf animal and the something-Wolf enemy from all the way back around the Kandorean Temple? Or the Emu monster and the actual emu? Food for thought... and for the stomach.
-Ooooh, some guy's talking about there being treasure west of the river... but he also thinks that nobody in Kibombo's ever found it. Well, mister, I guess they just didn't have superpowers. A woman in another house says that they're blocking the way across the river, and that you'd need a ship, which is convenient for us - we've got the Black Gem and we've got Piers, so we'll probably be able to get his ship soon enough unless anything goes wrong. West from Southern Gondowan (pretty sure that's where we are right now?) is the Eastern See, which is sorta confusing - supposedly, there's two continents in the middle of that sea. Guessing we'll go there soon enough. Found a Lucky Medal in a jar in the same house, which is nice. It seems like the villagers are starting to be more positive towards Akafubu, so we'll see.
-That 'being nice to people training' thing sounds hilarious. I want to watch that.
-Huh, I thought there'd be something on the furthest south point of the cliff you need to use Frost to get to. Well, going up a screen.
-...Wait, this is the exact same place where we recruited Piers - we just jumped on a roof instead of using the ice pillar. Whoops.
-Well, the Gabomba Statue's still open, so... yeah, I might as well try the dungeon the Great Gabomba opened last time.
-Gabomba Catacombs... hmm. The grass here reminds me of the one in Pokemon where wild Pokemon could attack you. There's also a crater-thing in the ground that won't budge even after I try all the field Psynergy I've got. I also run into a couple of Red Demons... which reminds me that someone commented to try and kill them with a Jupiter Djinn to get an item, so I'll try that. I think this is the first time I'm actually using the Defend command in this game, wow.
-Well... holy cow, that was a lot of XP. But no item dropped, so... unless anything interesting happens, I won't update anything until I get an item drop from the demons.
-Having to constantly re-set the one Jupiter attacking Djinn you have is a bit of a pain. Really wish there was a way to make fleeing more reliable too.
-jeeeeesus fucking christ, these salamanders' psynergy spells are stupid strong. or maybe Sheba's just stupid fragile.
-Jeeeeeeeesus, the Vital Moon left Piers at O N E HP.
-Pretty sure I've killed more than 16 Red Demons with Blitz already...
-Yep, this has officially entered gambler's fallacy territory.
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-Staff of Anubis, huh? All right - holy crap, that took longer than I expected. Oh my god. I spent waaay too much time running away and failing and then running away and succeeding and then healing up with Felix, but everyone's level 20 now. The new staff is a power boost... but not exactly a big one, haha. Would I do it if I knew? Probably not. But here we are, and at least I've finally got it. Don't think I can do anything right now in the Gabomba Catacombs, so let's get out.
-Oh my god, the innkeeper's wife is offering BBQ Monster Steak. That sounds sick - in both senses of the word. The warriors seem like good guys now that, you know, there's no raids and storming-cities and sneaking-into-sacred-rituals-shenanigans going on. A short rest, and it's time to leave Kibombo.
-Into the Kibombo mountains! I remember seeing a Djinni in here - let's see if Frost can help us.
-Oh my fucking god
-The Sarcophagus unleash literally summons a literal sarcophagus that crushes the pixie flat like a pancake. That's hilarious, 100% worth it, I now regret nothing.
-Oh, a Growth plant! It's annoying to have to switch to another class to use the Psynergy, tbh, but them's the breaks. I save before interacting with the Djinni, and thank goodness, because it leaps into a fight. After a few spells traded, Sheba whacks the Djinni into submission. I guess Waft must've been impressed with that, because it goes straight into Sheba right after that. With that, she class changes from a Magician to a Mage - nice!
-Felix levels up to 21, and I decide to go to Naribwe. Let's see what to do next with the fortune teller... and besides, I'd also like to see what else the people living there have to say. I run into a Wyvern Chick on the way - and man, I used to be so scared of them, wow. ~~I still am~~.
-Seems like some soldiers came through Naribwe asking for Piers... that doesn't bode well. Don't think the Kibombo knew his name, so I'm not quite sure who they might be. Otherwise, a guy's got updated dialogue, but still thinks that Kibombo's a dangerous place at the moment - I suppose the signal flare and the messengers haven't gotten to Naribwe just yet.
-...Holy shit, the innkeeper's husband dropped a bomb: it's Isaac! Isaac's trying to get to Piers! Not expected, holy crap - urgggggh, how did Felix miss them? And why do Isaac and company want to talk with Piers, anyways? Does it have something to do with the Lemurian boat Babi took from the country and gave to Isaac...? Huh. Food for thought.
-Seems like the girl that mentioned Magma Rock to Felix also mentioned it to another traveller, who headed in that direction. Might that be Isaac? But she didn't mention a group, so... not sure. Another kid mentions a man trying to get to Kibombo - I think that one might've been Piers, actually. So I guess that we're actually ahead of Isaac's group right now... huh. Usually the playable characters are the ones doing the pursuing, so this is a nice change of pace.
-Seems like the fortune teller's been predicting some pretty apocalyptic things. "The power of nature would rekindle the advance of civilization," huh? Interesting. The lady gets philosophical afterwards, asking whether a peaceful or advanced world would be better.
-...Wait, what? The old man in the backyard we broke into to nab the Unicorn Ring mentions that a 'big brute' came by looking for, of all people, Menardi? How many freaking people have been to this village? Pretty sure Saturos died with Menardi when they fell into the hole on top of Venus Lighthouse, but... hmm.
-Awww, the Kibombo are trying so hard, but I guess it's been a while since they've had to communicate like that, huh? Doesn't seem like anyone in Naribwe really understands what they're doing - though the fortune teller did tell them that the Kibombo's warlike ways are over, so let's see what ends up happening. The priest mentions a freezing cold region called Tundaria, all the way down in the south. I'll keep it in mind too.
-Time to have a reading or two. Setting down Sheba's Staff of Anubis leads the fortune teller to say that "beyond the weapon I've set down lies a terrible foe," and that my next foe awaits in the misty sea. I have to gather the "pieces of the weapon" (whatever that means), or drown in defeat. Next, I set down Piers' Chainmail: to the north, beneath the sacred icon, the one I seek awaits. Pretty sure that means in the Gabomba Catacombs, but I don't think I can progress there just yet (I should know, I spent way too long running around that floor). Setting down an Elixir tells me a similar thing to the staff: that I must forge a weapon to defeat a mortal enemy, and to seek out the pieces. I feel a fetch quest incoming. I try to set down the bag with the Jupiter Star, but I "can't remove it", so that's that, I guess.
-Well, that was a very informative diversion. Glad I stopped by here, it's given quite a lot of things to consider and watch out for. Time to move on! I think next was... Gondowan Cliffs?
-Right, Gondowan Cliffs. Pretty twisty area. There was a puddle somewhere...
-Found it. I use Frost and use the pillar to go from the right to the left. There's only one drop, and to the right of the cliff below is a Healing Fungus that I picked up. Kinda like the Laughing Fungus I've got right now, actually - I think I got that one here too. There's another puddle near the other entrance, but I backtrack after following the path because I'm pretty sure it's little more than a shortcut.
-Back to Madra! For... the fourth time, I think. Let's check out what the folks around here are saying, and then venture into the catacombs.
-I see they've fully covered up the catacombs entrance behind the graveyard. I should probably do the catacombs before I leave Madra so I don't potentially miss anything good. The guards are in high spirits, and inform us that the mayor's returned! Let's see how the guy's holding up.
-Quite a few people are talking about the boat in Alhafra: they mostly think that it should be ignored or destroyed, which seems kinda short-sighted, but hey. An old man in front of the vendor stands is instead thinking about ~~Lemurland Lulu~~ Lemuria.
-...There's a woman with a portrait asking for Menardi. Let's just say 'no' for now, haha... um. She can detect the Mind Read Psynergy, so she's an adept, but she doesn't accept us telling her that Menardi's dead, so... hmm. Well, at least Felix has told her the truth; hopefully none of these decisions come back to bite me on the ass later.
--Oh, so the Shin guy - the item vendor's boyfriend - is the guy that was being an ass to Piers and got some Frost Psynergy demonstrations for his trouble, huh. Not sure what to say other than 'don't be rude', haha.
-Well, the other vendors are still thinking about the first raid. Seems like the armor vendor doesn't think that there was an alliance because they attacked from different sides - and to be honest, given that Briggs' ship got wrecked on the right of Madra, it would've been hard to coordinate with the Kibombo even without their warlike attitude. Coincidence sounds kind of fishy, though... was there somebody pulling the strings?
-Some girl in the cave house is talking about a business scheme that's gonna use Isaac's power. Whatever that is, it doesn't sound very good. The guy in the house is thinking the same thing; to be honest, I do like that there's all sorts of varied reactions. This greedy fuck wants to parade Isaac around like a circus animal to get some money, and I could sadly see that happening in real life, given what people have been shown as circus freaks in the past. But more importantly - Isaac's group was here, huh? Was it before or after going to Naribwe?
-One of the sailors, Isaac... The guy even mentions the Lemurian ship he was given. Doesn't seem like those guys in that house see him as very trustworthy. A kid below the house I was just in actually clarifies - seems like they're looking for Lemuria. Did they mention that in the first game? I don't remember - but they're probably going there on Babi's orders, either way.
-A woman in the church is fearful of the future, pointing out the ocean warming up and the fish dying. Seems like nature's going to shit - kinda fits in with what the fortune teller supposedly said earlier, according to the lady in Naribwe. The people in the house next to the church are instead talking about the Kibombo; seems like they think they'll attack again. Hm. Can't blame them.
-The lady in the house with the Djinni's talking about mushrooms from the Gondowan Cliffs now, which certainly catches my attention: I smell a sidequest. I've got the option to hand him something... so I'll save first. Uh, the Laughing Fungus has the description 'a rare and suspicious mushroom', so I'm guessing that's the 'bad ending' to this sidequest? I'll save, hand it over, and probably reload.
-Ah, so it's not quite right. Well, that's better than him eating it and keeling over dead with his face in a puddle of his own vomit. It was returned to Jenna's inventory, so... huh. Well, let's hand in the Healing Fungus then.
-Seems like this is it. Glad to be of help to the old man: everyone deserves some comfort in their lives. They're going upstairs... and yep, they're fetching the Mars Djinni. Seems like they had it as a pet - which brings up a question. Non-Adepts can see and interact with Djinni, but can they actually use their unleashed powers or gain something from them? Regardless of the answer, Jenna gets Char for herself, and everyone's happy: I get a Djinni, and this old couple can have some tasty mushrooms for dinner.
-Going down to the prison before going to the mayor's house, and it seems like the mayor got fed up with the greedy bureocracy in Alhafra, which... 100% fairs, yeah. He wants to get people back there himself to fix the boat - I'm guessing we'll help him in that endeavor sometime. More confirmation that Isaac's party showed off their Psynergy: seems like one of them even took the time to explain what it was. Whoever it was, I'm guessing it wasn't Garet, haha.
-Ahaha, some people in the prison are trying to freeze the puddle. Glad to see they're taking it better than the guy in the cave house behind the stalls, anyways: this seems benign (and tbh, I'd definitely try too). Seems like Shin's trying to better himself - I'm glad. Time to go to the mayor's house, I guess - I'll pop into the inn to mind-read the people there after coming back from the Madra Catacombs.
-Oh, everyone's coming out for this one, nice. Everything worked out fine in the end, woop! Sheba calls attention to the girl outside (which doesn't surprise me, considering her mutterings about Menardi and her standoffish behaviour) and is swiftly ignored. Seems like Piers wants to go to Lemuria, just like Isaac - oh god, they're gonna be chasing after us trying to get information, aren't they? Do they even know that Felix and company are with Piers now?
-Awwwww, Piers is saying that he thinks we're all good people now! That's great, haha. ~~Is he counting Kraden?~~ I really hope that these guys get some dialogue, because I think there's a hell of a lot of potential dynamics that could be explored. I'd love some interactions between Sheba and Jenna, for example. Seems like Piers has decided to lend us his ship so that we can get to Lemuria... nice. The group promises to visit, and the conversation's over. I just have to highlight the old lady's thoughts, though: she thinks Piers would've been eaten by monsters if he'd been alone. Lots of faith.
-The mayor stops us when we leave to give us the gift he'd promised: a Cyclone Chip. Interesting name. I'd totally forgotten about the gift, tbh: you're all right, mayor :)
-...uh oh, "Felix...?" and random evil music? Seems like this girl knows us.
-Goddamn, Sheba - blunt as shit. "Isaac killed them. They're probably at the bottom of the sea by now." OOOOF
-Seems like the party wants to protect Isaac, which is very sweet and noble, but Menardi's sister is smart enough to figure out who he is anyways, which sucks. Kraden suddenly pipes up with "How do you know that Felix didn't kill your sister?", which is proooooobably not the best thing to say unless you want Felix to die. Is that it, Kraden? Do you want Felix to die? Menardi's sister calls him out on his bullshit (but seriously, what the hell, Kraden?) and says that even at double power, Felix'd still get stomped, which... fairs. She also says that "the lives he hold dear hangs in the balance," which... hmm.
-All right, so Menardi's sister is gonna try and seek out Isaac while Felix's group lights up Jupiter Lighthouse. She mentions "we" - is the big brute mentioned earlier that was also looking for Menardi with her? She refers to herself as Karst. Cool name.
-"Wow. And I thought Saturos and Menardi had issues." I LOVE YOU SHEBA
-The group's actually intelligent (shocker in an RPG, I know) and discusses the ramifications of their conversation. They catch on to the fact that Karst said 'we', and discuss the possibility of warning Isaac before dismissing it; and I can see why, since their goals are literally opposing each others'. Besides, Isaac's already seeking us out, and Karst is seeking him out... if she saw us fraternizing with the 'enemy', I don't think she'd exactly be merciful.
-Heh, Sheba calls Isaac and Jenna an item. How long ago was the Sol Sanctum incident, anyways? "...Stupid Sheba..." Jenna mutters. I love these two - they've already gotten so comfortable around each other that they can joke about silly stuff like this. It's great. Kraden also brings up that if a confrontation came, they'd squash us... but I dunno, iirc I finished the game with everyone at level 30 or 29 and Felix is already level 21. A bit more time... and we'd at least be able to fell Ivan, hahaha. Time to venture into the Madra Catacombs before they close for good!
-We progress a bit (the enemies are so puny now, and I'm still not over bees being here) until we reach a door: "Look upon me with eyes of truth", the tablet next to it reads. Using Sheba's Reveal Psynergy, the tablet turns into a button - pressing it opens the gates, and we enter into the ruins. I see a chest on the left and a chest to the right, but can't reach them quite yet. A bit of running around, however, and we get to the chest: it holds an Apple! The jars next to it have nothing, though.
-You know, I never noticed before, but the monsters have higher or lower-pitched death cries: for example, the Drone Bee's is higher-pitched than the Mini-Goblin's. I see an open door, but let's try to get as much business on the outside done as we can. Some Lash action allows us to use the Frost pillar to get above the open door - but there's an open door there too.. I backtrack and check if I missed anything, but going to the left only leads to the Tremor Bit chest I opened a while ago.
-Ground floor entrance: quite a few staircases and doors. The right staircase leads to a room with nothing but an empty box and a destroyed bed. Jenna levels up to 21 after a fight with a couple of Trolls. The left staircase is blocked, huh. The left room has a lot of jars and barrels, but none of them have anything - I do see a chest behind some rocks, though. The right room has a staircase that leads down to a room with a locked door and another staircase that eventually leads to the chest from earlier: it has a Lucky Medal, which Jenna pockets with gusto. Finally, the central hallway has a table cracked in half by a large stone and a seat (a throne?) worn down by the passage of time. Creepy stuff, honestly - what the hell happened here?
-Frost and Lash combined allow us to get to the top level. Going down allows Felix to nab a Mist Potion from the chest that we saw in the start. Restoring 300 HP to everyone is no joke... this could definitely be useful. Entering the first floor's entrance, we can go through the left door now. There's a bedroom inside, along with a bookshelf with a chest. Move doesn't work, but Tremor does - the chest drops below. It's not in the left room, but it is in the room down the central hallway. A Ruin Key... I think this is for the door on the right room's staircase that goes down.
-The Ruin Key works, and there's (what I think is) the final secret of the catacombs - a summon tablet! Moloch's power is ours. Time to test the summon out and then retreat out of here.
-...It's kinda ugly-cute, haha. And with that, we're out of the Madra Catacombs! Time to go to the inn and see what's going on there.
-The innkeeper reassures our party that the fish he uses are fine - his thoughts confirm that, luckily. A lady that works in the inn mentions that someone was asking for a weapon - a trident, she clarifies - that 'he' could use to slay a sea monster. Interesting. Pretty sure the fortune teller told Felix that he'd have to find a special weapon to fight a sea enemy with, too. The merchant up in there (and how long are those two staying, anyways? Like - woah) theorizes that an undersea volcano's responsible for the rising temperatures and the tidal wave. We're probably gonna explore it somehow, watch, haha. Seems like that's pretty much it for the dialogue in Madra, though, so I pay for a night and then prepare to leave.
-Oh, shoot, the Cyclone Chip, I nearly forgot about it. Seems like it gives another Field Psynergy (we're running out of inventory spaaaaaaace). I give it to Jenna: she's got quite a bit of PP, so she should have something other than Lash.
-We leave Madra, but someone calls out after us. It's, uh... one man and two purple aliens. Seems like they know Isaac.
-Oh - OH! Vault; that's where we recruited Ivan, right? And we fought bandits that were trying to steal something from Hammet (Hammett?) and his wife (Lady Lanaya or Layana, don't remember). They want to fight - and holy shit the battle themeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee I'm dying
-It's so good
-Why are the bandits still purple, though. Like, is that their actual skin colour
-Wow, what a throwback. The bandits are down in a couple of turns, and flee. Kraden says something like "Will you stop trying to get your revenge on Isaac?" after they've gone off-screen, which is... something. But they drop Golden Boots, and holy shit do those make your Agility go up the wazoo. After some consideration, I give them to Piers: the Agility boost would be a bit superfluous, and I do like the idea of Felix being a slow and steady healer. Time to get to Piers' boat! ...Where was it again?
-Oh my god, it's a Wild Wolf. I haven't seen them in foreverrrrr!
-Right, found it - East Indra Shore! There's a puddle, which I freeze and use to get to the cliff: there's a Cookie inside the box, nice! Now it's time to get to the boat itself - when we do so, Piers says that we have to get to the energy chamber below. There's nothing in the barrels and nothing in the crow's nest, so might as well follow. The interior's pretty cozy, huh. A Barrel's got an Elixir, but none of the others have anything, so time to proceed.
-...An Aqua Jelly. There's monsters in here? Ooof. The monster goes down in a few hits, and... dissolves into a puddle of water. Interesting. I check down the stairs to make sure I'm not missing anything, but the way is blocked by some crates, so we can't go anywhere else. Piers levels up to 21 after we defeat the second Aqua Jelly and celebrates by solidifying its remains into ice so that we can get a Potion. Going down.
-Holy crap, that's a lot of Aqua Jellies. There's a lot in the adjacent room, too - what in the world happened here? Some more shenanigans ensue, and we manage to get through to the other side and push the crate down in the hallway for a shortcut. Gotta say, though, this has a pretty horrendous layout for an actual ship that people would use.
-More Jellies and some pipes. You know, all this Frost usage is making me wonder where's the equivalent Fire power. Venus has Move and Growth, Jupiter has Whirlwind and Mercury has Frost, but Mars has... nothing. Some fireballs to light tinder up, or an explosion to blow up big rocks? Oooh, or summoning lava. While I'm at it, I clear out some inventory space by giving Felix a Cookie and Piers an Apple. A box has an Antidote - exciting stuff. No other barrels and boxes that I check have anything though, so I freeze the last Aqua Jelly and move on.
-I pass a few rooms and go into the first Aqua Jelly-filled room we saw, the one with the chest. The barrel's got an Oil Drop (Briggs!!!!!).
-...I didn't save before this
-I didn't know there was a boss. Welp.
-All right. Aqua Hydra, bring it on. I start off by using some Djinn to bolster my attack and defense, while reducing the Aqua Hydra's defense as well. The Raging Flood it uses in retaliation nearly one-shot Sheba, but what's new? I really wish I had some multi-target healing Psynergy right now, though. Ugh.
-Well, Sheba and Jenna are dead thanks to Raging Flood spam, and the only revival Djinni I had was Jenna, so it looks like it's The Boys' Time. The hydra thankfully wastes quite a few turns using Triple Chomp against Piers and dealing single-digit damage, and after a few very tense rounds, one final Ramses summon finishes the enemy off. Phewwwwwww.
-...Well, that chest is now underwater. But at least we can now continue!
-We go down into a really weird chamber that doesn't really vibe with the rest of the ship: some Douse usage opens the door. Piers sets the Black Orb... and everything starts shining - and we're sailing! Piers tells Felix to take the tiller, which Google informs me is "a horizontal bar fitted to the head of a boat's rudder post and used for steering". Jenna wants to go to Lalivero, and Tolbi, and Vale - which I definitely wouldn't be opposed to. Gods, having complete and utter freedom must feel very nice for Sheba, Jenna and especially Felix after so long being trapped with Saturos and Menardi. Piers agrees, and Felix too, but Kraden decides to be ~~the rational one~~ a party-pooper. And with that... holy shit, I'm controlling the ship. Or I guess you could say... holy ship!
-I make a quick stop in the beach near Alhafra to revive Sheba and Jenna (you just have to press A next to the beach, I think, which is pretty convenient). A small fee of 820 coins later, and everyone's ready to go - but it's pretty late here, and I think I've gotten quite a bit done today. It's been a lot of fun, and I can't wait to explore the sea and see (heh) what stuff lies in wait for us.
Everyone's Level 21 except Sheba - she's Level 20. We've got 3 Venus, 4 Mars, 4 Jupiter and 5 Mercury Djinn, and Felix is a Knight, Jenna is a Hex (interesting name), Sheba is a Mage and Piers is a Commander. That Aqua Hydra seriously caught me off guard - thank goodness I just about managed to win. Apart from that, though, this session's been more about plot development and exploration than about combat, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. And now that we have a ship... well, I guess we have to find the parts to make the weapon we need, according to the fortune teller, so hopefully I'm able to find some next time I play.

Compiled resources for Qult recovery - Please help add some!

Why Quran is logically fallacious

What follows is a list of fallacies and their examples taken directly from the Quran (Sahih Translation). This shows why Quran as a source of knowledge is extremely flawed. I went with the approach of going fallacy by fallacy instead of verse by verse because otherwise this post would be me quoting every other verse and saying appeal to emotion fallacy.
Genetic Fallacy - At many places in the Quran such as the following, it makes arguments that one should remain the way they were born. Now this commits many more fallacies then one but the one that I have noted is the most interesting one.

when your Lord took from the children of Adam - from their loins - their descendants and made them testify of themselves, [saying to them], "Am I not your Lord?" They said, "Yes, we have testified." [This] - lest you should say on the Day of Resurrection, "Indeed, we were of this unaware." (Quran 7:172)

Special Pleading - Well Allah in Quran on many occasions says that things just couldn’t have been different without providing a sufficient, or any explanation at all. One such case is the verse that follows.

Had there been within the heavens and earth gods besides Allah, they both would have been ruined. So exalted is Allah, Lord of the Throne, above what they describe. (Quran 21:22)

Post hoc ergo propter - Quran in the following verse asserts that when people pray to him on a boat and return home safely, they were saved because of their prayer. Now this commits more than just one fallacy but the most prominent one that this commits is the “Post hoc ergo propter” fallacy since, it asserts that two things happen after each other therefore the former was the cause of the latter.

And when they board a ship, they supplicate Allah, sincere to Him in religion. But when He delivers them to the land, at once they associate others with Him(Quran 29:65)

Cherrypicking - We don’t exclusively see cherrypicking from Muslims since the Quran itself commits the fallacy of suppressing evidence. It shows us a case of men crying for his help and getting it but later turning away from him which in and of itself is a fine example but the verse’s implicit conclusion is that men turn to him in hard times. That doesn’t follow because the argument ignores the times when men asked Allah and he decided not to intervene, or when men didn’t ask Allah but their bad times were dealt with anyways. Indeed Allah is the greatest of the cherrypickers.

And when adversity touches man, he calls upon his Lord, turning to Him [alone]; then when He bestows on him a favor from Himself, he forgets Him whom he called upon before, and he attributes to Allah equals to mislead [people] from His way. Say, "Enjoy your disbelief for a little; indeed, you are of the companions of the Fire." (Quran 39:8)

Is-Ought fallacy - Quran argues in the following verse, that if something is natural among humans then it should be kept the way it is. Now this commits multiple fallacies but the most outrageous one being that its breakage of Hume’s law.

So direct your face toward the religion, inclining to truth. [Adhere to] the fitrah of Allah upon which He has created [all] people. No change should there be in the creation of Allah. That is the correct religion, but most people do not know. (Quran 30:8)

Omnipotence doesn’t matter, you can’t beat David Hume.
Non-sequitur:
In the following verse, the Quran states that even if all plants watered with the same water, some would produce tastier food then others and somehow concludes that it’s, therefore, a sign from God. The conclusion just doesn’t follow...

And within the land are neighboring plots and gardens of grapevines and crops and palm trees, [growing] several from a root or otherwise, watered with one water; but We make some of them exceed others in [quality of] fruit. Indeed in that are signs for a people who reason. (Quran 13:4)

Here the Quran concludes that Jesus couldn't have been the son of God from just one premise that is, he eats, it's a blatant non-sequitur, but it also commits a false dichotomy fallacy that one can either eat or be the son of God, and also commits an Ad Hominem fallacy at the end by attacking the critic.

The Messiah, son of Mary, was not but a messenger; [other] messengers have passed on before him. And his mother was a supporter of truth. They both used to eat food. Look how We make clear to them the signs; then look how they are deluded. (Quran 5:75)

unfalsifiable fallacy - In the verse that follows, Quran responds to a question asking for evidence by simply saying that the one asking the question is arrogant. It’s not only an unfalsifiable fallacy but also an egregious Ad Hominem fallacy.

And those who do not expect the meeting with Us say, "Why were not angels sent down to us, or [why] do we [not] see our Lord?" They have certainly become arrogant within themselves and [become] insolent with great insolence. (Quran 25:21)

Appeal to popularity fallacy - Here the Quran Argues that people should believe just because most people around them believe in Allah.

And when it is said to them, "Believe as the people have believed," they say, "Should we believe as the foolish have believed?" Unquestionably, it is they who are foolish, but they know [it] not. (Quran 2:13)

Begging the Question - Quran in many verses such as the one that follows asserts that Allah is the creator of everything and you should believe this because you were created by him.

How can you disbelieve in Allah when you were lifeless and He brought you to life; then He will cause you to die, then He will bring you [back] to life, and then to Him, you will be returned. (Quran 2:28)

Appeal to force - Quran at many occasions such as the one that follows threatens those who disbelieve to essentially make them accept the conclusion out of sheer fear for their lives.

Have they not seen how many generations We destroyed before them which We had established upon the earth as We have not established you? And We sent [rain from] the sky upon them in showers and made rivers flow beneath them; then We destroyed them for their sins and brought forth after them a generation of others. (Quran 6:6)

Straw-man - Quran regularly straw-mans it’s opposing position to assert that they are liars and one such instance is the verse that follows

And those who disbelieve say to those who believe, "Follow our way, and we will carry your sins." But they will not carry anything of their sins. Indeed, they are liars. (Quran 2912)

The Divine Fallacy - On certain occasions like the one that follows the Quran just says it’s obvious that he is the creator if you look at the wonders of creation. In other words, it says that the world is so, good that it must have a creator.

Say, [O Muhammad], "Travel through the land and observe how He began creation. Then Allah will produce the final creation. Indeed Allah, over all things, is competent."(Quran 29:20)

This is basically God’s version of “look at the trees” argument.
Hasty Generalization - Well, now most ex-Muslims are somehow criminals. Is this argumentation not worse than the arguments that nonintellectual Muslins present.

Make no excuse; you have disbelieved after your belief. If We pardon one faction of you - We will punish another faction because they were criminals. (Quran 9:66)

Loaded Question - In the following verse Quran says that if you ask Muslims they would say that it is Allah who created them but if that’s the case then they should be worshipping him. This is in a question form and it assumes that if someone created you then you should worship them.

And if you asked them who created them, they would surely say, " Allah ." So how are they deluded? (Quran 43:87)

False Cause - In the following two verses of the Quran it asserts a cause and effect relationship between mankind being in pain and turning to his very specific religion.

Indeed, We will remove the torment for a little. Indeed, you [disbelievers] will return [to disbelief]. The Day We will strike with the greatest assault, indeed, We will take retribution. (Quran 44:15-16)

Appeal to adverse consequences Fallacy - The verse quoted below commits multiple fallacies but the most apparent one being its appeal to adverse and undesirable consequences of disbelieving in order to prove itself correct.

And when he knows anything of Our verses, he takes them in ridicule. Those will have a humiliating punishment. (45:9)

Ad Hominem - The verse below most apparently says that disbelievers who have read or listened to the Quran are sinful liars which is rather than attacking their arguments is attacking them.

Woe to every sinful liar. Who hears the verses of Allah recited to him, then persists arrogantly as if he had not heard them. So give him tidings of a painful punishment. (Quran 45:7-8)

The Argument of repetition fallacy - In the entire Surah, Rehman Quran keeps presenting the same point that he is the one true God because he has done favors for you. While the point itself is extremely fallacious but the approach is way more fallacious than the point. What I have presented below is a taste of what surah Rehman’s repetition is like.

And grain having husks and scented plants. So which of the favors of your Lord would you deny? (Quran 55:12-13).
[He is] Lord of the two sunrises and Lord of the two sunsets. So which of the favors of your Lord would you deny? (Quran 55:17-18).
From both of them emerge pearl and coral. So which of the favors of your Lord would you deny? (Quran 55:22-23)

So on and so forth…
The appeal to consequences fallacy - The following verse insists that you should believe the Quran is speaking the truth because if you do that then you would be rewarded.

Believe in Allah and His Messenger and spend out of that in which He has made you successors. For those who have believed among you and spent, there will be a great reward.

Wishful thinking fallacy - In many of its verses such as the one that follows the Quran, makes its gullible readers dwell in wishful thinking, granting it some legitimacy in their minds.

And your Lord is going to give you, and you will be satisfied. (Quran 93:5)

Proof by assertion Fallacy - This verse like the representative of a quarter of the Quran where it just tries to prove itself by just making assertions.

And of His signs is that you see the earth stilled, but when We send down upon it rain, it quivers and grows. Indeed, He who has given it life is the Giver of Life to the dead. Indeed, He is over all things competent. (Quran 41:39)

Other quarters are the argument from authority, appeal to emotion, and ad hominems.
Ipse Dixit - Here like in many others of its verses Quran effectively asks is it not self-evident that this religion is true.

We will show them Our signs in the horizons and within themselves until it becomes clear to them that it is the truth. But is it not sufficient concerning your Lord that He is, over all things, a Witness? (Quran 41:53)

Slippery Slope - Here Quran asserts that one event would inevitably lead to another, multiple times which it does without sufficient data, or reason if any at all.

O you who have believed, do not take as intimates those other than yourselves, for they will not spare you [any] ruin. They wish you would have hardship. Hatred has already appeared from their mouths, and what their breasts conceal is greater. We have certainly made clear to you the signs if you will use reason. (Quran 3:118)

Kafka Trapping Fallacy - Quran in many of its verses emotionally manipulates its readers and tries to ignite the feeling of guilt to convince them that his book is true.

The example of those who were entrusted with the Torah and then did not take it on is like that of a donkey who carries volumes [of books]. Wretched is the example of the people who deny the signs of Allah. And Allah does not guide the wrongdoing people. (Quran 62:5)

Gambler’s fallacy - Here Quran asserts that if a nonbeliever is asked whether they want to die or not, they will say they don’t. Now, that somehow means that they know that Allah’s real. Lord indeed is the greatest of the gamblers.

Say, "O you who are Jews, if you claim that you are allies of Allah, excluding the [other] people, then wish for death, if you should be truthful." But they will not wish for it, ever, because of what their hands have put forth. And Allah is Knowing of the wrongdoers. (Quran 62:8-7)

Talk about causation.
No True Scotsman Fallacy - The verse that follows proposes a method to verify belief which cannot be used because of its unfalsifiability. It, therefore, commits a no true Scotsman fallacy.

The believers are only those who, when Allah is mentioned, their hearts become fearful, and when His verses are recited to them, it increases them in faith; and upon their Lord, they rely - (Quran 8:2)

Shifting the burden of proof - Quran rather than proving it's authenticity challenges non-believers to prove it wrong, evidenced by verses like

Say, "If mankind and the jinn gathered in order to produce the like of this Qur'an, they could not produce the like of it, even if they were to each other assistants." (Quran 17:88)

The argument from Ignorance - Quran appeals to ignorance and the fear of ignorance found in the humankind of the time to legitimize itself, evidenced by verses such as

Do they not see the birds controlled in the atmosphere of the sky? None holds them up except Allah. Indeed in that are signs for a people who believe. (Quran 16:79)

Turns out, birds can fly from entirely natural processes and they do not need a holder to hold them in the air.
The argument from authority - Rather than proving itself as an authority Quran just asserts itself as an authority and comes to the implicit conclusion that therefore, all that is written in it is the ultimate truth and one such example is,

He is Allah, other than whom there is no deity, the Sovereign, the Pure, the Perfection, the Bestower of Faith, the Overseer, the Exalted in Might, the Compeller, the Superior. Exalted is Allah above whatever they associate with Him. (Quran 59:23)

False Dichotomy - Quran regularly presents blatantly false dichotomies such as that which follows, to try to convince nonbelievers that it knows better than we ever could.

Or were they created by nothing, or were they the creators [of themselves]? (Quran 52:35)

Circular reasoning - Here the argument presented is, a rhetorical question basically saying you can’t argue with me about God because he has guided me while proving that he has guided him.

And his people argued with him. He said, "Do you argue with me concerning Allah while He has guided me? And I fear not what you associate with Him [and will not be harmed] unless my Lord should will something. My Lord encompasses all things in knowledge; then will you not remember?

Affirming the Consequent - Here in the verse quoted below, Quran sets up a conditional saying that a book directly from God shouldn't have contradiction; Quran doesn't, therefore it's from God. While it's also a non sequitur it's most glaringly is the propositional fallacy known as "Affirming the Consequent".

Then do they not reflect upon the Qur'an? If it had been from [any] other than Allah, they would have found within it much contradiction. (Quran 4:82)

Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.

Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.

Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.

Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.

Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.

Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.

6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.

5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.

4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.

3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.

Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.

2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.

But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1

Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.

The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.

But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato

1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.

2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.

And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.

Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.

Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.

What to consider as priority - reality or ideology?

Epic Seven Quick-Start Guide

Epic Seven Quick-Start Guide
I think this is a great game and I've been lurking and participating in the daily question thread for a bit. Here's my attempt at passing that back up to the community.

Selective Summon:
Five main routes as of 3/25. I ordered them for amount of sanity cost vs payout.

Spin for and stop at the first 5* hero you see.
- I have played a lot of Gatcha games and this is my highest suggestion. Re-rolling is no fun and this will keep your sanity in check as well as letting you play through the main fun part of game easily.
- You do not need anything the game does not provide in order to complete all content.
- Realistically most people don't play a specific game for more than a month at a time, don't waste the first few days mindlessly growing a grudge against RNG.
Spin for Angelica, take whatever else. Angelica + most combination of units will clear all endgame content at the time.
Spin and stop at the first 5* hero with 4* anything. Much more likely than you'd think as long as you're not picky, I went this route. You just get more stuff, and will likely come sooner than Angelica.
Spin for Angelica, re-roll for any 5* with her. Hilariously unlikely, but best start in game.
Spin for any of the above starts, beat the game, spin on crazy person lottery with gold transmit stones for 5 star from a different rare unit pool, re-roll from there. Not recommended for humans, our lifespans are precious, don't waste your life here.

Playing the Game:

For speedy progression: Push to beat the game unlocking as many upgrades to your base as possible.
- Do labs daily.
- Do abyss daily until you can't.
- Join a guild asap!
- Make as many rank 60 friends via reddit as possible! (And use them to solo clear or farm harder content.)
- Decide on your favorite four units to take on the world. Only work on these core four and avoid other units until they have maxed out their initial gear, hit 6*'s, and max leveled.
  - Caveat: You may abandon any of your core four for a new shiny unit that you pull of course, but be aware of the time cost to bring the unit up to speed, where you could have been pushing new content.
  - With that in mind, do summon a bit when you start, to ensure you're happy with your core four as to optimize your time spent!
Ultimately the main goal of the game is to clear all of the Hunt 11's, clear all 90 floors of abyss, and clear raid on hell difficulty.

Facts that you want to know about gearing up:

Guaranteed Gear - CabbageCZ
This topic really warrants a megaphone: the guaranteed gear will be what gets you through a lot of the progression hurdles.

Labyrinth guaranteed items (look them up; they'll likely get your first DPS into the 40K-50K range).
Abyss sets - There are 3 sets of Abyss Lifesteal sets, with incredible all attack right side attack stats.
Arena sets - There was a set of gear you use to be able to buy with Conquest points, but have rotated out. The next Arena set is coming in the next season.

Main Gear
Only upgrade red gear you find in abyss and lab for quite a long time (a month+). Use your resources wisely!

Your power level/stats is mostly determined by your hero level and your right side gear, ie necklace, boots, ring. This is because this gear can instead of having a flat stat, have a % boost to your overall stats. Higher level gear can raise for example your base attack stat by 60%. That's nutty large an amount. Thus, sell ALL gear on right side that has flat main stat (except boots with speed).
All gear has substats. Try to be picky and invest only in gear that does not have flat stats (except for speed).
It can be safe to say that speed is the best stat for every unit. In rare min max situation you can disprove this statement, but realistically, you can really bank on speed to solve virtually any problem in this game. For a measure: +14-17 speed is extremely powerful.
Charms save money, but grey and green gear can be used at a loss to gear up faster. You want your core team to be +12'd out asap.

+12/+15 Your Right-Side Gear - CabbageCZ
A gear's +15 main-stat value is 5x the +0 value. It starts slow, but at higher ranks it jumps by a lot.
The difference between a +10 piece of gear and a +15 piece of gear is massive. Just the last few ranks make a huge difference, most of the power is in the last ranks. Prioritize +12, +15 on the top right side gear you have ASAP, it's a huge boost in power.
Sidenote: you should be watching the secret shop for jewelry/boots like a hawk when you unlock lv70/85 gear. The first +50/60% ATK or +50/60% HP gear will be a great power spike for your main healetank/DPS.

Artifacts
Artifacts are typically class specific gear that can drastically change how a unit functions. For the most part keep one of every artifact. You can find exceptions by searching reddit.

Many characters have artifacts that really define the characters power level.
There are many artifacts that specifically shine in PvE or PvP, some are just well rounded choices for all game modes.
I've listed some strong artifacts in the following lists to give you an idea what traits are regarded as strong in this game. There are many artifact analysis on single artifacts that span the length of this entire guide! Thus, please excuse the brevity of the following lists.

The Best 3 Star Artifacts: Daydream Joker (god tier PvE), Candlestick, Tonfa, Sheath. All of these are good even in endgame.

Feel free to sell everything else. 3 star artifacts are hilariously common and you'll get back whatever you need in short order.
There are a few jank 3*'s specifically used to handle certain hunt 11 mechanics, they include Egg, and Envoy.

The Best 4 Star Artifacts:

Borderline OP: Aurius (knight), Wondrous Potion Vial (Soul Weaver).
Also among the best: Rosa Hargana, Dust Devil, Infinity Basket, Hell Cutter, and Hilag Lance.
- These are great, the power level of Aurius and Wonderous Potion Vial are through the roof great.

The Best 5 Star Artifacts: Anything Soul Weaver. Rhianna & Luciella (Thief) best in slot almost all of the time. Uberius’s Tooth (Warrior). Song of Stars (Ranger) .

Most 5 stars have unique effects and are rare to see. Don't dust them in general unless you have dupes, and even then, ask on reddit!

Again, I repeat that I don't feel that I'm doing the artifacts justice, all the while, my lists above are all sorts of hand waving magic. My suggestion would be taking some time and read the text on each artifact you own to really get the most out of your setups. (And further research through reddit!)

What is Farming in E7?
Farming in Epic 7 is a majority of the game. The goal is to get gold, exp, and catalysts for unit advancement.

You will spend a lot of time in the unit advancement phase. That is, you need to get materials (fodder) to raise the rank of your units to 6*'s and materials (catalysts and runes) to unlock all 6 awakenings.

Prioritize clearing Side Story Event: Always farm event currency in the Side Story Event mode, and with it, buy every item in the Side Story Event store.

Sell the 3* penguins. (You get a transmit stone and 50k gold. The penguins are more valuable sold than used as exp!)
There is an argument that mid and high tier runes might not be optimal, but they are certainly easier for most players than Altar rank 10.
If you're early in the game check out the remaining days before the side story ends, budget enough time to clear the store if you decide to push main story aggressively, first. You'll regret not picking up the catalysts from the side story.

AP Store
When you are done with Side Story: Farm Epic Catalysts using the AP Store, clearing as many Epic Catalysts as you can each week. This is the best gold, exp, and chance of catalyst vs stamina spent possible.

Pick a location with an epic catalyst in the AP Store in world difficulty
If possible clear world maps for double the efficiency of normal. 8 instead of 4 AP per clear.
If possible clear a map that contains both an epic drop chance and the catalysts you are looking for.
- Otherwise prioritize the catalyst that you would like dropped from enemies, and farm the corresponding location.
During that grind bring a white dog, a gold dog, and some level 1-5 fodder unit.
If your friend list is incredible, don't even bring your own unit an carry 4 fodder.

Friendly Advice: You are statistically unlikely to farm "Epic" catalysts and succeed in getting 1,2,... 15 of them from world maps. If you're farming with the expectation that you'll get them, you are setting yourself up for failure. (There is only 1 chance per drop typically on the boss monster. As opposed to non epics which have a chance to drop from the 5-11 other enemies on the map.)
The remainder of your epic catalyst will come "free" from Side Story and purchased from a Raid Store. I strongly advise for you to resist purchasing normal catalysts, and instead farming for them, or trading guild mates for them.

Promoting Units:
Always promote max level units before foddering away the unit. Units can only promote by being max level, they have to eat equal rarity units, but the food does not need max level. Much of the game is leveling fodder to feed.

2*White Dogs and 2* Fodder eats other unleveled 2*Fodder.
3*Yellow Dogs and 3*White dog eat other 3*White dogs and 3*Fodder from previous step.
4* Black dogs and 4*Yellow Dogs eats other 4*Yellow and 4*White dogs.
- Try not to eat too many yellow dogs, have a few around for leveling up. Yellow dogs level faster than other units.

Your first two 6* s should be your DPS, it's nice to have an AoE and a Single Target, optional. Lorina is a good choice here.

Generally this should be your fastest AoE farmer. Premium units would be Vildred or Sez.
Ignore claims they may or may not be endgame from reddit (you can find a use for virtually any unit).
The rate they'll get you your other 6*'s is worth it from the human time they save you.

Your third should be either a support unit that buffs/debuffs, or your healer. Fourth should be which ever you didn't do.

Virtually any healer goes here.

What to do on the various maps:

World: Main story maps. Either carefully 3 star everything your first trip. Or come back and do it later. There is a second difficulty that continues the story when you beat 10-10. Clear everything for both difficulties. Prizes are generous especially on world difficulty.

World map farming for catalysts are the best farm-able gold/stamina returns in the game.
Buy as many Epic Catalysts as possible from AP store each week.
The drop rates according to most research is the same in normal as it is hard difficulties for catalysts. The only difference is the amount of exp you get per quest.
For human time spent, hunts would be the fastest way to farm gold. (Or literally buying gold, but will not go there.)

Labyrinth: Look for little regions that stick out, go there for gold chests. Goal is to find them and push towards exit asap.

Feel free to auto battle lab runs until you die. There is no cost respawning the first time each trip.
There is also no cost to just entering lab and yielding out without using the exit, you will not keep spoils of war, but you do keep items you buy from the shops.
Ignore other advice about leaving when moral is low, just keep farming a map until you die to something, take the free respawn, and teleport to an exit that you've found.
You can use mini map to teleport to different spots.
First pass at all of the labs will grant your initial team gear for the next month of game-play.
There is a merchant you might meet. If you can afford it, buy all charms and bookmarks without hesitation. His wares refresh each day.
- "Easiest access is probably Lab 1-3 in the middle (enter, TP to the eastern gateway, go like 2 tiles right/up and you're there.)" -CabbageCZ
Look up a calculator to find out what your best camping moral is 30 is a good number to shoot for.

Raid: There is a 2 cost lab called Raid, try it as soon as you unlock it and prioritize it if you can beat it. The eventual goal is to finish all 5 bosses of the raid in 3 runs. That requires run 1 with 28 moral (1 boss and clearing towards next boss), run 2 with 33+ (2 boss clears), and run 3 with 28 moral (clear queen first then last boss). This will let you move units around to handle each boss mechanic.

Look up guides on what to do (they're a novel of mechanics that someone else has covered better than me already).
There are two shops in Raid where items refresh daily, one in each difficulty. Everything other than common catalysts are great, do not buy regular cats.
Beating Queen in raid gives you a hell raid token. You can buy these in conquest shop.

Hell Raid: At the time of writing there are only two bosses. Only spend raid currency on buying the God Tier raid gear.

The left boss, the minions heal the boss and the boss steals a turn at 50% hp. Keep a minion low. The rest of the mechanics are about the same as normal.
The right boss starts stealthing at 70 and 40% hp. At 40% hp the boss starts to really pump out damage. Try to slow rolls up to 41% and start bursting hard, keeping souls and cooldowns for this moment.
After clearing a boss, hunt for mini bosses for extra rank 88 gear drop chances. (Most people are rightfully sad at how rare drops are.)

Abyss: Do it until you can't. First two life steal sets are huge power spikes for free. Push for them aggressively.

The last life steal set will take a bit of time to reach.
Use reddit and floor number each time you're stuck for a solution.

Altar: Clear as far as you can initially, farm them only when you need to.

Side Events: If possible, buy out the entire store every time. This is the best use of your stanima period. Farm normal with 1 of your own units, one helper, and 3 fodder for best rate of return. Hell is only good for burning all of your stamina for event currency and poor for exp and catalyst drop rate.

Hunts: Go as far as you can just to measure your progression. Beating Hunt 11 on auto battle is currently the same as "beating the game."

Event Battles: There is the regular battles which have a chance of dropping charms (NOT WORTH IT.) Do clear them for quest prizes once.
More importantly there are Limited Event Battles which have a chance to drop artifacts. Play until you get 1 event artifact. Then stop unless you're at the stage where you can clear hell, then max one out. Doesn't matter if you think it's good or not. It might be useful later.

Arena: Spend all resources fighting bots, it's okay, you'll reach a point in ladder climbing where this is what you'll do a lot of anyways.

Arena is a good source of equipment exp, and it's "free" just by participating. Winning gets you more, but even losing 5 in a row still nets you a participation repeat prize.
Use extra energy fighting easy enemies, refresh list for free every chance you get.
You can get to masters just by picking off people who are losing intentionally.
If you want to win at Arena, speed is a premium.

The main two strats, are to have a speedster buff up team, then everyone else aoe's (called a cleave team). The other main team is the team that can survive a the first wave of cleaves with sheer stats or disruption, and wins from going second.

In general focus speed and have high +'s on your gear and you'll win your way through to challenger without too much terror. After that, it's entering whale territory.

Upgrading Sanctuary Buildings:

Max out forest 0-3-0 first.
- You will be pumping out penguins until you have a core group of level 50's.
- Then you will be pumping out silver dogs until you are poor.
- Then you will be pumping out penguins again but this time to sell them all for money.
- Repeat.
Max out main base 1-3-3 next.
Have 1-1-1 for your dispatch building.
- When you do your quests here, don't put too much thought in optimizing who goes there. Just dump 4 fodder or heroes you want to get the exp.
- The most valuable two are the ones that reward you with lab currency and arena currency, have that up 99% of the time.
- The best efficiency is the 30min ones. Do those while you're actively playing, and do the 2-4 hour ones for when you're done for your play period.
Have 3-3-3 for your forge, you won't touch it until end game, so this is low low low priority.

Guild:
Join any guild ASAP! There's a shop in guild here with prizes you want. Donate aggressively to get them.

Try not to give away catalysts unless you're friendly with your guild. They're rare and can be much harder to farm than claws, or stones, or what not.
Do a favor to the guild and ask for high tier claws, it's the fastest way for guildies to rank up contribution points.
Push to buy out the guild store every week!

GvG - Play daily for prizes. Doesn't matter if you lose, just crash your teams and your fodder into things.

Units with strong survival or single target damage have more premium in GvG than Arena.

Shopping
There are a lot of currencies.
Skystone / Pack Store

If you choose to pay, Monthly Pack and Rank up pack is the best bang for buck from what I've seen in excel sheets. Never just buy raw Skystones, always get some pack with it.
- Don't over spend!!!
- This game charges a premium for rare things, Molagora, Moonlight summons etc. From a sanity perspective, they're a horrible deal (opinion!). But if the greed monster does rear it's head, keep yourself in check.

Normal Store

Buy lief lab entry's aggressively, people say the 240 stamina is worth more than a lab entry, and eventually this is true, but you're paying to power level yourself by getting more runs of a time gated event which holds the best gear you'll get for the first month of play.
Buy the weekly lab compass for quiet some time as well.
While we're at it, buy guild weekly lab compass weekly.
If abyss is easy for you, power level yourself faster with the Abyss Guide tickets, the earlier you get abyss gear, the sooner you get a power spike in character progression.
Buy only galaxy bookmarks with gold transit stones
Buy Molagora, yellow dog with transit stones weekly. One day years down the line, maybe you skip the yellow dog because you're done promoting units. Who knows?
Buy lesser Artifact and Greater Artifact charms for the first month or two.
- The power level boost from having strong artifacts is great, but be reminded that transmit stones are quasi limited.

Power of Knowledge Store
You get powder from selling 3* or better artifacts. Use guides to determine the "must haves" for your team.

Each store item set set lasts for 1 month. If you're aggressive, you should have enough natural materials to get 2 5* artifacts every 3 months.
Only buy 5* artifacts.
Never buy 4* artifacts.
Unless the desire sensor is too high, or you'll get an immediate impact on content clearing, try to save your purchases until the last day or two in order to protect yourself from the statistically unlikely chance you pull the artifact you were going to purchase.
There are strong opinions that differ from my view, so I'll point it out that there is a good case to buy specific OP Artifacts such as Aurius. Do it at your discretion!

Ancient Coin Store

For the most part buy any of the charms for massive power level boosts, since they go to your rings and necklaces, which are % stat slots.
In the fringe case where you have literally nothing to level up with charms, you may buy Raid Hell entry tokens.

Conquest Points Store

Prioritize buying MolaGora seed over everything. Followed by buying all the stamina in the shop everyday.
Remaining can be spent on charms, doesn't matter the size. Budget enough points to buy more stamina.

Friendship Store

Buy out the energy and flags daily.
Buy out bookmarks aggressively, there is no other function to friendship points. See next section for what to do with them.

How to get more Trasmit Stones / What to do with Friendship Bookmarks
Friendship bookmarks are used for low quality 10 summons. You get two types of junk, unit fodder, and artifact fodder.

Unit fodder starts at level 5, so very fractionally will reduce their grind to level 2 for promotion and being eaten by white dogs.
Artifact fodder you can feed to your main artifacts OR clear a quest multiple times that requires leveling up artifacts, which pays out in Silver Trasmit stones.

The quest requires you to "skill up" an artifact, every so many times you do it, you'll get a quest complete for a bunch of silver transmit stones. The quest line goes up to 30. With your friendship points you can quickly front load all the silver transmit stones you'd otherwise have to wait months for.

The most efficient way to do this, is to create a +3 1 star and 2 star artifact of each type (just feed them copies of themselves until they're +3, you'll do this 100's of times, so you'll get the idea quickly) and sit it there in your inventory until you complete all upgrade quests.
You grab an artifact with no +'s on it, and feed it a +3. This will make that artifact +3. Repeat until you run out. of artifacts.

Lobby
There are daily log in events you have to take part in, swipe left from the big banner button until you find your current weeks event.

There's a secret shop, click on the demon bartender, it refreshes every hour. Rank up to 50 for his shop to offer level 85 gear. Until then, check every hour you can for a chance at bookmarks.
- Always buy bookmarks.
- Buy level 85 right side gear if it has % base and % sub-stats in what you want. Otherwise walkaway and don't look back.
- You can refresh if you want to, people math'ed it out to be comparable to just buying bookmarks, but instead of free penguins, you pay for bookmarks and have the chance of seeing good gear.
You can talk to your guild by using guild chat located in the top right, where chat channels are.
Reputation Quests: They come naturally, remember that if you rank up, you get account wide perks, but you have to click the view story button to get it.

Battle

Dying in a mission has virtually no catch in this game, if you have a healer, you can just auto battle an easy stage after a complete wipe and have full hp again. Never use the heal all button that cost precious gold.
You can click on hourglass from timeline to see more details of what will happen. You can click on boss portrait to see information about the boss, such as immunities.
You can see HP numbers when enemies attack.
Defense Break, Attack Up, and Immunity are the best overall buffs debuffs.
Bleed and Burn scale with attack damage.
Posion scales with max hp of target.
All three guardians are good. Use doggie when in doubt.

Random Advice or Facts:

Max out your equipment inventory.
Max out your hero inventory.
You can make up to 10 teams. It's cheap, do it if you want to.
When selling units, the game remembers how many duplicates were used. So if you "merged" 5 3*'s together, and found out later you didn't want it anymore, you can sell them for the value of 5 units, so 5 transmit stones (units) or 5 powders (artifact).
"For those who really just want to run through 5 Adventures cheaply and quickly, enter 1-5 Normal, tap on map and teleport to the exit to complete the stage. This is faster than auto-ing any stage." -everythingisatoms
Cracks in the world should each be completed once for Mercedes power up. But future runs are only Exp and human time efficient, they are terrible for Catalyst drops, gear, etc.

Molagora
You will hear horror stories about how limited and rare these guys are. Only three rules of thumb to follow here.

If they're in core team, and it says cooldown -1. You buy it. Healers first!
If you love your unit, you buy everything.
If it says effect rate up and in core team, consider buying it.

All other cases, don't buy it.

General Spinning Advice
Personally, I'm afraid of getting new units, they cost so much time and investment to add to my teams. This is what keeps my desire sensor in check. Until I fully built my current project, I tend not to want to divert my resources to another character.
That said! When first starting out, you do want to do a good amount of spins (maybe 200 bookmarks?) before saving up, it'll flesh out your artifact and utility heroes earlier on. But at some point you want to stop and begin to hoard for things you want/need.
In order to not be burned, you'll want to save 600 bookmarks for limited banners for the pity rate to kick in and get you the unit. You hope that you don't spend all 600, but the 121 spin club is a real thing. =(
When spinning on just regular character banners, be happy for the little things.

Got a stray 5*? YAY!
Got a 4* off a few spins? Time to stop and enjoy your victory!
Got a few (too many) 3*'s?
- Dust the unused artifacts and build towards one that you want!
- Got junk 3* heroes? MERGE them to SSS rank and sell them. You get a quest that typically pays out 19-20 bookmarks and a bunch of transit stones.
DON'T fall into gamblers fallacy of believing that you can "whiff" that many spins, you absolutely can. Stop after a few and try again later (spread out the "fun" of gambling, so that you're less tempted to gamble more).

Generally don't save MoonLight ML summons, spend them right away. Mystic Summons (GvG currency) you can save until the rotation has what you need.
Spin all friendship bookmarks until you can't handle the fodder or artifact count. Ideally you use friendship summons to replenish fodder and farm transit stones.

But before you save up 1,000, 2,000 friendship summons, maybe it would be a better idea to just convert it all into gold, as gold is more valuable to you now. You could just summon and sell everything.

Daily Rotation:

Collect free summon!
Do a hunt.
Do a altar.
Auto battle 5 quests from Side Event or Main Map.
Pay with stigma to buy penguin.
Collect dispatch rewards as well as queuing them back up again.

Then collect all reputation quests for the day.

Do check the event banner for what you might still be missing.
- The requirements change event to event, covering dailies typically overlap and covers events.
- This should be apart of your daily rotation

If you have more time:

Buy out all stamina from friendship and conquest and burn through it.
Buy arena flags with friendship.
Collect the 80 daily stamina from GM and burn through that too.

What is end game?
At this point you're just doing PvP, GvG, auto battling Hunt 11's, doing Hell Raid, and collecting free daily prizes from abyss (since you only need to complete it once).

TLDR: Spin for pretty much anything and beat the game with it. Do daily rotations. Game gives you enough stuff for gearing and promoting first four characters well. %based stats and speed are best stats. Spin early game, save mid to late game. Beat story, Beat Lab, Beat Abyss, Beat Side Story. Then grind ad nauseum and keep desire sensors in check.

Thank you for reading / bookmarking / commenting, whatever it is you did, I appreciate it!

gambler's fallacy real life examples video

We’ve received several requests to clarify the “ Gambler’s Fallacy ” that we address in another article. The questions basically relate to, “What exactly do you mean when you say past outcomes don’t affect future outcomes, and how does that affect whether a certain number is due to hit?” Gambler's Fallacy. The gambler's fallacy is based on the false belief that separate, independent events can affect the likelihood of another random event, or that if something happens often that it is less likely that the same will take place in the future. Example of Gambler's Fallacy. Edna had rolled a 6 with the dice the last 9 consecutive times. Examples of Gambler’s Fallacy If a woman has had 4 children, all of whom were boys, it would be erroneous to assume that the 5th child will be a daughter. If a certain disease is said to affect 9 out of every 10 people, that does not imply that in a random group of 10 individuals from that area, the same ratio would be observed. The gambler's fallacy is a situation in which a gambler believes that a string of past events will change the probability of future events occurring. How Does Gambler's Fallacy Work? Coin flips are the most common example of the gambler's fallacy. If you have a losing streak, then increasing the wager in order to ride the law of averages back to a win is a gambler’s fallacy. By exponentially increasing your bet size, you are exponentially increasing the risk of ruin. You aren’t making it more likely you’ll win, but more likely that your losses will be catastrophic. Gambler's Fallacy Examples. The simplest gambler’s fallacy example is flipping any coin you want, as long as it’s fair. If you flip it 10 times in a row, you'd expect it to land on heads 5 times and tails 5 times. Yet if you do this experiment, you might get 8 heads and 2 tails, or 6 heads and 4 tails. The gambler's fallacy is the belief that the chances of something happening with a fixed probability, i.e., rolling 10 even dice in a row, become higher or lower as the process is repeated. Examples of Gambler's Fallacy: 1. That team has won the coin toss for the last three games. So, they are definitely going to lose the coin toss tonight. 2. That family has had three girl babies in a row. The next one is bound to be a boy. 3. The last time they spun the wheel, it landed on 12. What is the gambler’s fallacy? Examples of the gambler’s fallacy: 1. Girl child boy child; 2. Board games; 3. Predicting outcomes; 4. Gambling and betting; Why you make an error like a gambler? How to avoid gamblers fallacy? Conclusion The gambler’s fallacy works in the opposite direction. This is the idea that during a losing streak, it is likely that a gambler’s luck will turn around and that they will start winning.

Gamblers Fallacy - Definition & Examples LF

gambler's fallacy real life examples

gambler's fallacy real life examples - win

You should know about the tricks gacha games use to get you addicted/make you spend money!

0. Am I genuinely having fun?

1. The monthly pass (Blessing of the Welkin Moon) has a great price-performance ratio and is cheap so it can't hurt... can it?

2. It's free to play and I enjoy(ed) it, so spending some money can't hurt.

3. Guilt-tripping the player into playing after they spent money

4. The daily routine of work and chores

5. The first time is free - veiling the distribution of currencies/gems

6. Overwhelming the player with a lot of different currencies/gems

7. The carrot and the stick - New content and changing the meta

8. "It's okay, I only spent $___, some other people spent waaay more."

9. Gambler's Fallacy and Sunk Cost Fallacy - A dangerous combination

10. The Sunk Cost Fallacy strikes again

Playing Golden Sun: The Lost Age - Part 6

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Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

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gambler's fallacy real life examples video

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